Carolina (11-5) at New Orleans (11-5)
When: Sunday, January 7th 2018
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Time: 4:40 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New Orleans -4/49
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Three teams from the NFC South made the NFL Playoffs and two of them will face-off against each other for the third time this season as the New Orleans Saints host the Carolina Panthers in a Wild Card game on Sunday afternoon. The rivals finished tied atop the division standings, but the Saints earned their first division title since 2011 – and home-field advantage – by virtue of sweeping the regular-season series. Since 1970, teams that swept the regular-season series also won the playoff rematch 13 out of 20 times. Both teams enter the postseason looking to bounce back from poor showings in Week 17 that prevented each from a potential first round bye. The Saints started the season with two straight losses before a 34-13 victory at Carolina in Week 3 that sparked an eight-game winning streak, but they went 3-3 over their final six games and their defense was terrible in a 31-24 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday. Carolina could have won the division title with a win at Atlanta last week, but the offense sputtered in a 22-10 loss. It was only the Panthers’ second defeat in their last nine games, but the other was a 31-21 setback at New Orleans in Week 13.
Carolina’s offense has been more run-orientated more than ever with Came Newton (754 yards, six touchdowns), Jonathan Stewart (680, six) and rookie Christian McCaffrey (435, two) leading the league’s fourth-best ground attack. Newton hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Week 5 at Detroit and has done so only twice all season, and he threw three interceptions last week. The defense ranks third in the league in sacks, with Mario Addison and Julius Peppers leading the way with 11 apiece, but are just 18th against the pass (229.1). The Panthers have forced 19 turnovers in their 11 wins but only two in their five losses.
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New Orleans owns the league’s No. 2 offense, but it’s not all Drew Brees this time like in the past. The dynamic duo of Mark Ingram (1,124 yards, 12 TDs) and rookie Alvin Kamara (728 yards, 8 TDs, 6.1 average) lead the way. The Saints even had success running the ball against Carolina’s third-ranked run defense, gaining 148 and 149 yards in the two meetings. New Orleans’ defense turned in two of its best performances of the season against the Panthers, holding them under 300 total yards in both games, but the Saints also have given up big yardage totals on a few occasions – including 455 total yards last week to last-place Tampa Bay.
WILD CARD WEEKEND STAFF SELECTIONS
It’s hard to beat a team three times in one year, but the Saints will do just that here today. They have been the more consistent team all season and now they have a running game that can make Brees even better. New Orleans should win by double-digits.
Pick: Saints -6.5
- Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- Panthers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Panthers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC South.
- Panthers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Saints are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC South.
- Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Saints are 42-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Saints are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 vs. NFC.
- Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games in January.
- Over is 21-5 in Panthers last 26 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 playoff games.
- Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 vs. NFC South.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Panthers last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Panthers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Panthers last 26 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 10-4 in Panthers last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 playoff home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Saints last 6 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Saints last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 8-3-1 in Saints last 12 playoff games.
- Over is 8-3 in Saints last 11 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 15-6-1 in Saints last 22 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New Orleans.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings.
- Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
- Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
