Oregon (7-5) vs Boise State (10-3)
When: Saturday, December 16th 2017
Where: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Oregon -5/63
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Expect lots of offense in the desert this Saturday as the Boise State Broncos battle the Oregon Ducks in the Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium in Sin City. The Ducks offense comes and goes with quarterback Justin Herbert, who helped Oregon average 52.1 points in the seven games he played. When he missed games due to injury, the Ducks offense stalled to 15.0 points a game. Oregon is in the Las Vegas Bowl for the first time since 2006 and will play a Boise team that was hoping for a higher-profile Bowl than this one. A 28-17 loss to Fresno State in their season-finale really hurt their chances, but they bounced back the following week with a 17-14 victory in the Mountain West title game against that same Fresno team. Boise finished the season in the top 40 nationally in both scoring offense (32.1) and scoring defense (22.5 allowed). Co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Mario Cristobal will lead the Ducks in Las Vegas after head coach Willie Taggart bolted the Northwest after just one season to take the same job at Florida State.
While Herbert drives this offense, he gets plenty of help from star running back Royce Freeman, who will be playing his final collegiate game. Freeman ran for 1,475 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, and finished 2017 with six consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. When Freeman gets a breather, Kani Benoit steps in and added 573 yards on the ground and 10 scores despite seeing just 80 carries on the season. Benoit finished the season with a 122-yard effort and score in the Ducks’ 69-10 Civil War win over Oregon State. There is talk of Freeman sitting out the game to get ready for the NFL Draft, so Benoit is a capable replacement. Oregon’s defense ranked 40th overall (359.8), but 76th against the pass (229.9).
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The Broncos could be miss a key piece on offense when they take the field in Vegas, as running back Alexander Mattison is considered questionable after he suffered an ankle injury in the title game victory over Fresno State. Mattison, who ran for 1,074 yards and 12 touchdowns on the season, left the game in the third quarter and was spotted the next day in a walking boot. That would probably force the Broncos to go to the air more. The combination of Brett Rypien and Montell Cozart under center combined for 24 touchdowns against five interceptions while completing 63.5% of their attempts. Rypien failed to throw a touchdown in both games against Fresno, but he also didn’t throw an interception in each of the last three games.
This line seems a little too high for me. Boise State is not the same team they have been for the past decade-plus, but they still have enough offense and a decent defense to keep this close. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Boise State +7
TRENDS:
- Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- Broncos are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
- Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Pac-12.
- Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Ducks are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Ducks are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Ducks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Ducks are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Ducks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
- Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Ducks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Broncos last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4-1 in Broncos last 14 games in December.
- Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2 in Ducks last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 48-15-2 in Ducks last 65 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Ducks last 8 vs. MWC.
- Under is 9-3 in Ducks last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 Bowl games.
- Over is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 11-5 in Ducks last 16 games on fieldturf.
