Georgia (4-0, 1-0) at Tennessee (3-1, 0-1)
When: Saturday, September 30th 2017
Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Georgia -3.5/47.5
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The Tennessee Volunteers are coming off a victory, but head coach Butch Jones called the 17-13 victory over Massachusetts “flat-out unacceptable”. Tennessee will need a much better effort on Saturday when they host the Georgia Bulldogs at Neyland Stadium, who are coming off a very impressive victory. Georgia manhandled Mississippi State 31-3 last week in their SEC-opener as freshman quarterback Jake Fromm passed for 201 yards and two touchdowns. With injured starter Jacob Eason nearing a return, Georgia coach Kirby Smart told reporters Tuesday he wants the quarterback who gives his team the best chance to win. Tennessee’s loss comes on the heels of a heart-breaking last second loss at Florida to open their conference schedule. The Volunteers are 101st in the nation in red-zone defense and 107th in red-zone offense. Tennessee leads the all-time series 23-21-2 and has won the past two meetings, including Jauan Jennings’ final-play touchdown reception in last year’s 34-31 win in Athens.
Fromm, the SEC freshman of the week, completed 9-of-12 passes against Mississippi State and has thrown seven touchdowns against only one interception. No matter who’s at quarterback, the Georgia running game is the focal point. Georgia is averaging 223.3 yards per game on the ground, with 371 yards and six touchdowns from Nick Chubb through four games. The defense is also playing well, holding opponents to 11.5 points (8th) and 97.5 yards rushing (19th) per game. Georgia will be heavy favorites the next two weeks with games at Vanderbilt and home to Missouri.
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The Volunteers survived last week thanks to the defense, which recorded seven sacks – Tennessee’s highest total in a single game since 2008. The offense was led by 101 yards rushing from John Kelly, but were held scoreless for the first 25 minutes and final 22 minutes. Quarterback Quinten Dormady was replaced in the third quarter after passing for 187 yards, but replacement Jarrett Guarantano finished with minus-3 yards passing and four yards rushing. Tennessee is last in the SEC in rushing defense, giving up 242.3 yards per game – something that will have to improve to beat Georgia.
The Bulldogs are going to run it down Tennessee’s throats and the defense won’t allow the Vols to do anything on offense. This is a total mismatch here and I see Georgia winning this one easily.
Pick: Georgia -8
TRENDS:
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Volunteers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- Volunteers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Volunteers are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Volunteers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 games in September.
- Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 conference games.
- Under is 11-2 in Bulldogs last 13 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 14-3 in Bulldogs last 17 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 17-4 in Bulldogs last 21 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 17-5 in Bulldogs last 22 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 9-3 in Bulldogs last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 20-7 in Bulldogs last 27 games overall.
- Under is 19-7 in Bulldogs last 26 games on grass.
- Under is 19-7 in Bulldogs last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Volunteers last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-1 in Volunteers last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Volunteers last 10 conference games.
- Over is 9-3 in Volunteers last 12 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Volunteers last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 21-9 in Volunteers last 30 games in September.
- Over is 36-16-2 in Volunteers last 54 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings in Tennessee.
- Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tennessee.
