Stanford (9-4) vs TCU (10-3)
When: Thursday, December 28th 2017
Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Time: 9:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: TCU -2/46
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The Texas Christian Horned Frogs will be playing in their second Alamo Bowl in three seasons and will take on another Pac-12 foe in the Stanford Cardinal on Thursday, December 28th from San Antonio. TCU will have their hands full this time when the team faces running back Bryce Love, but have a great run defense to make it interesting. Love finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting after leading Power 5 running backs in rushing yards (1,973), rushing yards per game (164.4), yards per carry (8.3) and runs of 20, 30, 40 and 50 yards. Stanford bounced back from a loss at Washington State to win the Pac-12 North Division but fell 31-28 in the conference title game to Southern California despite strong efforts from Love and sophomore quarterback K.J. Costello, who passed for 192 yards and two touchdowns. TCU closed the regular season with back-to-back wins over Texas Tech and Baylor to secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game, but the Horned Frogs ran into a buzzsaw in Oklahoma and were dominated in the second half 17-0 of a 41-17 loss. TCU is 5-0 against Pac-12 opponents under coach Gary Patterson, including two wins over Stanford. TCU has allowed opponents to just a 3.2 yards per carry (eighth in the nation) behind defensive ends Mat Boesen and Ben Banogu, who led the Big 12 in sacks with 11.5 and 8.5, respectively. The Horned Frogs rallied from a 31-0 halftime deficit to defeat Oregon 47-41 in triple overtime in their last visit to San Antonio on January 2nd, 2016. Eight of TCU’s last nine bowl games have been decided by seven points or less.
The Cardinal relied mostly on Love and the rushing game before Costello took over as the starter late in the season and finished with a total of 11 touchdowns against three interceptions. Costello’s favorite targets are wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside (six touchdowns) and tight end Dalton Schultz, an All-Pac-12 First-Team selection. Senior defensive lineman Harrison Phillips had 17 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks and two fumble recoveries. Stanford allowed 21.5 points per game and owns a +15 turnover margin, which tied for second in the nation.
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Senior quarterback Kenny Hill accounted for 25 touchdowns while completing 67.2% of his passes to lead a balanced offense that averaged 33.2 points per game, but couldn’t get anything going in the Big 12 title game. TCU had five All-Big 12 First-Team selections on defense, including the duo of Boesen and Banogu, linebacker Travin Howard, safety Nick Orr and cornerback Ranthony Texada. Howard’s 83 tackles, including seven for loss, have him on pace to become the first player to lead the team in tackles in three consecutive seasons.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
I like this Stanford team, but they’re still a little one-dimensional and Love will be going up against one of the best run defenses in the nation. TCU’s offense is good enough to pull away from the Cardinal in the second half.
Pick: TCU -3
TRENDS:
- Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big 12.
- Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
- Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Cardinal are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.
- Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.
- Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Bowl games.
- Cardinal are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.
- Horned Frogs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
- Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Bowl games.
- Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
- Horned Frogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
- Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Cardinal last 7 neutral site games.
- Under is 7-2 in Cardinal last 9 games overall.
- Under is 6-2 in Cardinal last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Cardinal last 7 non-conference games.
- Under is 7-3 in Cardinal last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Cardinal last 10 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 5-0 in Horned Frogs last 5 vs. Pac-12.
- Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 6-0 in Horned Frogs last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Under is 5-0 in Horned Frogs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Horned Frogs last 8 games in December.
- Under is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last 7 Thursday games.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 9-2 in Horned Frogs last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Horned Frogs last 11 Bowl games.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Horned Frogs last 11 bowl games.
- Under is 16-5 in Horned Frogs last 21 games overall.
- Under is 8-3 in Horned Frogs last 11 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-2 in Horned Frogs last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Horned Frogs last 10 non-conference games.
- Under is 9-4-1 in Horned Frogs last 14 neutral site games.
