Summary insights:
- The best horse picks combine both good data and solid judgment on behalf of the picker
- Create a betting structure that drives better outcomes over choosing a single pick to root for
- While AI can support pattern-finding, human confirmation will work better and also offer you more excitement
With over 12 billion dollars in bets thrown around each year, there are plenty of potential winnings to go around. However, if you want to sharpen your horse picks and come out of your gambles with a higher likelihood of being content with the results, you need a simple and repeatable process.
Bettors are already doing this on a grand scale, and it will benefit you to get caught up with them. So, how do you do that, and what are the winning horse betting strategies that will get you the best returns?
While there is no secret winning strategy for all bets, below we offer several ways you can hone your skills to make better horse racing predictions. Discover how to analyze everything you need to know rather than focus on hunches, and how you can adjust your betting to create wiser bets.
How to Predict Which Horse Will Win
The top horse racing selections can sometimes feel unpredictable, so it may behoove you to move slowly in your learning journey as you ease into betting.
If you are only now getting into horse racing, it may be a good idea to ensure that you understand the basics. However, if not, it’s time to dive in.
Then, you will need to look into the data available for every run or race. For example, compare the last three races for each horse that is planning to run, comparing it to the average of their contenders. You will want to ensure that your pick has had an opportunity to run within the last 30-60 days, suggesting good form and fitness.
Naturally, checking the speed figures of each horse is very important. Doing this can often give you a good general idea of the capabilities of each horse, allowing you to rank your own favorites to choose from. You should also check these compared to par times for the specific track, as well as that horse’s other averages, to see if they are currently suffering from difficulties compared to normal.
It is also a good idea to check out the horse’s specific biases, which are their tendency to prefer certain styles of race or lanes. Depending on how often they race, this may not be available for the specific race they are in, but try to find out about the contenders if possible.
In addition to the entries, also check the capabilities and history of the jockey. A good jockey can often make all the difference, and whether they have a good rapport with a specific horse could spell success or disaster.
Can AI Predict Horse Racing?
Researchers have conducted numerous studies to determine whether AI is effective in providing horse betting tips. However, many of these AIs now use very similar systems to what sports betters use already to predict the results of a race.
They are likely to look for specific patterns in a horse’s behaviors, such as finding if they are better at performing in particular areas, as well as all of the data mentioned above. However, make sure not to rely on these systems. Not only are they as-yet still imperfect, often offering hallucinations that make it hard to trust them, but they are also not able to provide a “gut feeling,” which can often offer a significant payoff.
Guide to Horse Picks That Win More
At Bobby Babowski’s Ultimate Capper, we provide expert horse picks to help you maximize your betting experience. While our site is for entertainment purposes only, we can show you some examples of what a high-quality set of betting tips for horses looks like so you can use it to make decisions that you are more comfortable with.
If you wanted to do this yourself, we would recommend that yoy start by passing on any races that appear too chaotic and difficult to predict. Knowing this can become easier over time, but you should trust your gut on this. Protect your bankroll and enjoy your betting for longer instead.
Then, build up some likely bets based on the information available in this article. After that, when you have your list, select tiers for each based on your data and notes, highlighting whether each horse is a favorite of yours to win or is merely likely.
Choosing a Single
You can then consider which of your bets you feel strongest about and start by playing singles. Here, the edges are the strongest, and the process is a lot simpler, allowing you to ease into using your new framework.
In general, fewer bets and better bets are not only easier to predict but also easier to follow. You can focus on key areas that you specialize in and increase your chances of success.
We would recommend that you check out our own picks. You can even get them regularly emailed to you if you want to avoid the hassle of opening your browser each time you go for a bet.
Multi-Race Bets
If you want to instead aim for something more complicated, try a Pick 4 or a Pick 5. These allow you to cover more than one horse in each leg, offering you several combinations that may or may not succeed individually.
Pick the winner in several races in a row. If the horse in each leg that you choose wins, then your whole ticket wins. However, missing a single leg means you lose the entire ticket.
Such betting can offer significant payoffs, but is also much harder to predict accurately. It can provide elation in that last leg if you are rooting for your final horse to cross the finish first, or if it comes down to a photo finish.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Is the 80/20 Rule in Horse Racing?
The 80/20 rule is a method of ensuring that you can keep most of your money in low-risk areas when it comes to betting. There are lower variances in these areas, and it can support a much steadier gain or loss, helping you make better decisions.
To use this method, after you have read the odds for your next set of races, ensure that you allocate 80% of your bet towards safer bets, such as favorites or stronger single horses. You can then put the rest towards riskier endeavors.
Make sure you don’t use this for the wrong reasons. It’s meant to be a framework for managing your bankroll. It shouldn’t affect whether you choose a specific pick or not, as finding a high-quality horse is the purpose of the bet, not whether you can afford the bet.
Track your results by splitting your winnings back into the 80% and 20% buckets in the same proportions. Then, you can have the assurance that any additional bets you make will continue to fit these amounts without splitting at the point of choosing.
Who Is the Most Accurate Horse Racing Tipster?
It would be misleading to declare any single tipster as more likely to be able to select the best choice for race entrants. However, that is not to say some people don’t have a good understanding of likelihoods. It is simply that they are not going to understand every nuance of a race and, as such, take their advice with a pinch of salt.
Still, if you want to listen to such tips, perform their due diligence first. Make sure that they:
- Have a strong and verifiable sample size
- Have a reasonable hit rate
- Seem to make a consistent profit
- Understand the context of specific races
Review the program for any upcoming horse races you’re interested in, and then identify the races that align more closely with their experience. This method is not a guarantee, but it may increase the likelihood of the process succeeding.
What Horse Racing Records Should I Keep to Improve?
If you plan to engage with betting over time, seek to understand the full range of data available to give you a higher chance of being able to analyze a race carefully. When you bet on any particular race, take down the:
- Track
- Race type
- Odds you bet on
- Closing line value (CLV)
- Expected race shape
- Track bias
- Experience of the horse during the race (the “trip”)
- How much return on investment you made
Using this data, you can start to discover insights into which areas of racing you are better at predicting.
Put Your Smarter Horse Picks Into Action
With the information from this article, you should be able to kick your betting journey into gear, finding horse picks based on a better set of data and honing your skills.
If you’re ready to bet smarter, with some of the information you learned here, Bobby Babowski’s Ultimate Capper has much more to offer in terms of betting data to help you get the most out of your time with us. So, take a look at our free sports picks to discover our expert horse racing tips and start the next step in your betting journey.
