Wake Forest vs NC State Preview & Free Pick [11/8/18]

Wake Forest (4-5) at NC State (6-2)
When: Thursday, November 8th 2018
Where: Carter-Finley Stadium,
Raleigh, North Carolina

Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: NC State -16/64.5


The North Carolina State Wolfpack look to improve their Bowl standing when they host longtime rival the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Thursday night ACC action. This will be the 112th meeting between the instate rivals and the home team has dominated the last couple of decades. The Wolfpack sit at 6-2 overall, but just 3-2 in the competitive ACC Atlantic Division and can move into a third-place tie with Syracuse with a victory over Wake. NC State bounced back from back-to-back road losses to Clemson and Syracuse with a 47-28 thumping of Florida State last week and sit 14th in the current College Football Playoff standings. Wake Forest (1-4 ACC) sits in front of only winless Louisville in the standings and followed up a victory over the Cardinals with a 41-24 home loss to the Orange. The offense for the Demon Deacons has been just fine, but its the defense that can’t stop anyone. Wake sits 122nd in overall defense and 118th in points allowed at 37.2. They will also start a brand new quarterback on Thursday. The home team is 18-2 in the last 20 meetings and NC State is 5-0 at Carter-Finley Stadium this season.


The Demon Deacons lost starting quarterback Sam Hartman to a season-ending leg injury last week and will go with redshirt sophomore Jamie Newman on Thursday. Hartman led a 29th-ranked offense with multiple touchdown passes in seven of the team’s nine games, meaning Newman has some pressure on him to duplicate that. Newman has thrown 19 career passes (zero touchdowns, two interceptions), but goes up against a very soft Wolfpack pass defense. The 22nd-ranked rushing attack is led by Matt Colburn, who recorded career highs of 243 rushing yards and three TDs in the win over Louisville on October 27th, but was held to 67 yards on 15 carries against Syracuse.

Senior quarterback Ryan Finley leads the 10th-ranked passing attack in the country, but it was freshmen who accounted for 35 of the team’s 47 points in the win over Florida State. Ricky Person (three touchdowns) and Chris Dunn (field goals and five extra points) look to keep the momentum going against Wake. Finley has thrown six touchdowns in the last two games and is two TD passes from matching his career high set in 2016 (18). NC State is 6th in the country at stopping the run (91.6), but 129th against the pass (306.4).


I think this game has blowout written all over it. Finley has caught fire and should have a monster day against a weak Wake Forest defense, while the Deacons will have a tough time moving the ball with an inexperienced quarterback on the road.

Pick: NC State -17

https://youtu.be/yLHiy-yIQYY


Betting Trends:

  • Demon Deacons are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Demon Deacons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Demon Deacons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
  • Demon Deacons are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
  • Demon Deacons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
  • Demon Deacons are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Wolfpack are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
  • Wolfpack are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
  • Over is 7-1 in Demon Deacons last 8 games following a straight up loss.
  • Over is 7-1 in Demon Deacons last 8 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 5-1 in Demon Deacons last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Demon Deacons last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Demon Deacons last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 6-2 in Demon Deacons last 8 games overall.
  • Over is 6-2 in Demon Deacons last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-2 in Demon Deacons last 7 road games.
  • Under is 17-1-1 in Wolfpack last 19 Thursday games.
  • Under is 6-1 in Wolfpack last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-2 in Wolfpack last 9 games in November.
  • Under is 14-4 in Wolfpack last 18 conference games.
  • Under is 9-3 in Wolfpack last 12 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 9-3 in Wolfpack last 12 games on grass.
  • Over is 6-2 in Wolfpack last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Home team is 18-4 ATS in their last 22 meetings.
  • Demon Deacons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in NC State.

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