New Orleans (4-1) at Baltimore (4-2)
When: Sunday, October 21st 2018
Where: M&T Bank Stadium,
Baltimore, Maryland
Time: 4:05 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Baltimore -2.5/50.5
The New Orleans Saints stumbled out of the gate this season with an embarrassing home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 10-point favorites, but have since been on a roll. The Saints seek their fifth straight victory when their high-powered offense takes on the NFL’s best defense in the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon in Week 7 action. New Orleans averages a league-best 36 points a game, while the Ravens surrender an NFL-least 12.8 points per contest. Veteran quarterback Drew Brees is having one of his best seasons in years for a Saints team who’s being talked about as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Baltimore improved to 4-2 SU and ATS last week with a 21-0 shutout of the Tennessee Titans and the under has cashed in the Ravens last four games overall. Baltimore has won and covered the spread in each of the last eight meetings with the Saints, but only three of those were regular season games – the rest were preseason.
Brees has yet to throw an interception through the first five games with 11 touchdowns and is one TD pass away from reaching 500 for his career. New Orleans already has Alvin Kamara running well, but welcomed back Mark Ingram from a four-game suspension and rushed for a pair of touchdowns to give the Saints quite a dynamic duo. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore (concussion) was a full participant in practice this week and is questionable for Sunday for a defense that’s held opponents under 20 points in three of the past four games. Overall, the unit ranks No. 1 in the NFL at stopping the run, but 30th against the pass.
The Ravens sacked Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota 11 timess last week and Za’Darius Smith (5.5) and Terrell Suggs (4.5) lead the team in that category. Baltimore’s offense is not explosive, but hasn’t needed to be with the defense playing so well. Quarterback Joe Flacco averages 298 passing yards with a total of nine TD passes and four INTs for the Ravens ninth-ranked offense (393.0). Guard Alex Lewis, who was carted off the field with a neck injury last week, returned to practice and could play Sunday.
New Orleans seems to be putting things together behind Brees and a slowly improving defense. The week off always does wonders for teams, especially the Saints, who are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after a bye. The Ravens will be tested here and I will take the points with the better offense.
Pick: Saints +2.5
Betting Trends:
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 7.
- Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
- Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Saints are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in October.
- Saints are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.
- Saints are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
- Saints are 44-20-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Ravens are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Ravens are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Ravens are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games in October.
- Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7.
- Ravens are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Over is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 14-3 in Saints last 17 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 13-3 in Saints last 16 games following a bye week.
- Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games overall.
- Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games in October.
- Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 12-5 in Saints last 17 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 9-4 in Saints last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Ravens last 5 games in Week 7.
- Over is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Ravens last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Ravens last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 9-4 in Ravens last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
- Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
