Cincinnati (4-2) at Kansas City (5-1)
When: Sunday, October 21st 2018
Where: Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, Missouri
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Kansas City -6/58.5
For the second straight week, the Kansas City Chiefs will be featured on NBC’s Sunday Night Football when they host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 7 action from Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs were the last remaining AFC unbeaten team until Tom Brady and the Patriots got the better of them in Foxborough last week 43-40. Fun fact: that was the first NFL game in history that ended with that exact score. Patrick Mahomes continued his breakout MVP-caliber season with 352 yards passing and four touchdowns but was picked off twice by New England. The Bengals are also coming off a heart-breaking loss, as they once again fell to their AFC North-rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati is now 2-16 at home versus the Steelers under head coach Marvin Lewis – who is also 0-7 in the playoffs. Cincinnati has won the past five in the series, but the last meeting in 2015 featured a Kansas City team that wasn’t nearly as good offensively, but they also weren’t this bad on defense. The Sunday night game was originally scheduled in San Francisco for the 49ers hosting the Rams, but the NFL now has the ability to ‘Flex’ games a lot earlier in the season than in years past.
Cincinnati ranks just 23rd in total offense but sixth in scoring (29.0) thanks to a league-best touchdown rate (75%) in the red zone. Quarterback Andy Dalton has thrown seven interceptions on the season already but also has 14 touchdown passes – including three to veteran star A.J. Green. Fellow wideout Tyler Boyd, who is having a breakout season, has four touchdown catches and is turning into a deep threat. The Bengals rank 20th against the run on defense, but that is a little misleading because of allowing 230 yards on the ground in a Week 3 loss at Carolina. The rest of the defense has struggled, ranking 29th overall and 28th against the pass. The Bengals have recorded 12 sacks in their four wins and only one in their two losses.
Kansas City’s offense and defense are producing at a record-setting clip, but in opposite directions. Mahomes has passed for 1,865 yards with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions through six games, while the defense ranks dead-last, allowing 468.2 yards a contest. Mahomes has a lot of talent around him including running back Kareem Hunt and versatile speedster Tyreek Hill, who have combined for 13 touchdowns. The Kansas City defense has struggled most against the pass and still is without safety Eric Berry (Achilles) while linebacker Justin Houston (hamstring) could miss his second consecutive game. Star safety Eric Berry has yet to play this year due to a heel injury and probably won’t in Week 7.
This Kansas City defense has to get better, right? The Bengals are not a bad team, but they will not be able to stop the Chiefs at all tonight and all Kansas City has to do to cover this game is make a few stops – kind of like a Big 12 football game. I’ll take the Chiefs at home here.
Pick: Chiefs -6
Betting Trends:
- Bengals are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
- Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Bengals are 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bengals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on grass.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
- Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Chiefs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 road games.
- Over is 7-2 in Bengals last 9 games in Week 7.
- Under is 15-5 in Bengals last 20 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Bengals last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Bengals last 7 vs. AFC.
- Under is 14-6 in Bengals last 20 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 14-6-1 in Bengals last 21 games in October.
- Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games in Week 7.
- Under is 23-6 in Chiefs last 29 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 15-6 in Chiefs last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 46-20 in Chiefs last 66 home games.
- Under is 18-8 in Chiefs last 26 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 23-11-2 in Chiefs last 36 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
