Boston (95-44) at Atlanta (76-61)
When: Tuesday, September 4th 2018
Where: SunTrust Park,
Cumberland, Georgia
Time: 7:35 ET | TV: NESN,
Fox Sports Southeast
Opening Odds: Boston -125/9
The Atlanta Braves may not have the lead that the Boston Red Sox do in their division, but Atlanta is starting to pull away from the slumping Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and will host the Red Sox in the second of three Tuesday night. Boston got the better of Atlanta in the opener Monday 8-2 with the help of eight pitchers and clutch hitting by the newest member of the team, Ian Kinsler. The Red Sox increased their lead in the AL East to 8.5 games after the Yankees lost to Oakland and are just five wins away from 100. Kinsler delivered three RBIs in Monday’s victory and has multiple hits in four of his last seven games, going 11-for-27 in that span with six RBIs. The Braves are leading the National League East but missed a chance to add to that advantage with Monday’s setback, and sit four games clear of the Phillies. Boston will go with former Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello on Tuesday while Atlanta counters with the struggling Sean Newcomb. The Red Sox are expected to recall veteran 2B Brandon Phillips from Triple-A Pawtucket on Tuesday.
Pitchers: Red Sox – Rick Porcello (15-7, 4.27 ERA) | Braves – Sean Newcomb (11-7, 3.85)
Like Newcomb, Porcello has not been sharp of late, allowing 12 runs and 20 hits across 17 innings in his last three starts. Porcello’s last victory came in an interleague game at Philadelphia, where he struck out 10 and allowed one run over seven innings while also contributing a double. He is 20-8 with a 4.13 ERA in 39 career interleague games, including 2-1 in three starts against Atlanta.
Newcomb has surrendered five or more runs in three of his last four outings and is coming off a loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Newcomb allowed six runs on eight hits and a pair of walks across four innings to the Rays. He started at Boston on May 26th and lasted three innings while allowing three runs on six hits and four walks.
Both pitchers are struggling, but I’m more confident in Porcello breaking out than Newcomb, who has really fallen apart lately. Boston has won the last 12 games Porcello has started against a National League team.
Pick: Red Sox -127
BETTING TRENDS:
- Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 12-3 in their last 15 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 41-11 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Red Sox are 45-13 in their last 58 interleague games.
- Red Sox are 42-13 in their last 55 games on grass.
- Red Sox are 44-15 in their last 59 vs. National League East.
- Red Sox are 38-14 in their last 52 Tuesday games.
- Red Sox are 39-15 in their last 54 overall.
- Red Sox are 20-8 in their last 28 interleague road games.
- Red Sox are 36-15 in their last 51 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 65-29 in their last 94 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 37-17 in their last 54 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 39-18 in their last 57 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 19-9 in their last 28 road games.
- Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Porcello’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Red Sox are 12-0 in Porcello’s last 12 interleague starts.
- Red Sox are 8-1 in Porcello’s last 9 Tuesday starts.
- Red Sox are 11-3 in Porcello’s last 14 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 7-2 in Porcello’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 6-2 in Porcello’s last 8 road starts.
- Red Sox are 19-7 in Porcello’s last 26 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 22-9 in Porcello’s last 31 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Red Sox are 9-4 in Porcello’s last 13 starts.
- Red Sox are 1-5 in Porcello’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games.
- Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Braves are 20-9 in their last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 11-27 in their last 38 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
- Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 interleague games.
- Braves are 3-8 in their last 11 home games.
- Braves are 4-11 in their last 15 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 6-17 in their last 23 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 9-26 in their last 35 interleague home games.
- Braves are 6-22 in their last 28 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 0-6 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
- Braves are 7-2 in Newcomb’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 5-2 in Newcomb’s last 7 starts.
- Braves are 5-2 in Newcomb’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Braves are 7-15 in Newcomb’s last 22 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 2-5 in Newcomb’s last 7 home starts.
- Braves are 3-9 in Newcomb’s last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 1-4 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Braves are 0-4 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Braves are 0-4 in Newcomb’s last 4 interleague starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 interleague games.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Red Sox last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Red Sox last 8 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-2-2 in Red Sox last 12 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 11-3-2 in Red Sox last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2-2 in Red Sox last 11 Tuesday games.
- Over is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Red Sox last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Red Sox last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Porcello’s last 6 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 8-2 in Porcello’s last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Porcello’s last 13 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Porcello’s last 5 interleague starts.
- Over is 5-2 in Porcello’s last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 12-5-1 in Porcello’s last 18 starts on grass.
- Over is 7-3 in Porcello’s last 10 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 14-6-1 in Porcello’s last 21 starts overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Braves last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Braves last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 7-1 in Braves last 8 games following a loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 13-3 in Braves last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Braves last 9 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 17-5 in Braves last 22 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 20-6 in Braves last 26 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 19-6-2 in Braves last 27 interleague home games.
- Under is 12-4 in Braves last 16 on grass.
- Under is 12-4 in Braves last 16 overall.
- Under is 8-3 in Braves last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Braves last 26 interleague games.
- Over is 10-4 in Braves last 14 Tuesday games.
- Under is 7-3 in Braves last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 interleague starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 9-3 in Newcomb’s last 12 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-2 in Newcomb’s last 7 home starts.
- Over is 5-2 in Newcomb’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Newcomb’s last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Atlanta.
- Red Sox are 26-9 in the last 35 meetings.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
