Tampa Bay (53-49) at NY Yankees (53-46)
When: Thursday, July 27th 2017
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: New York -105/8.5
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The resurgent New York Yankees open-up a four-game series with division rival the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday night in the Bronx, looking to keep pace with the Boston Red Sox in the AL East standings. New York enters the series one game behind first-place Boston and is getting contributions from the newly acquired Todd Frazier, who hit his first home run on Wednesday since coming over from the Chicago White Sox. Rookie Clint Frazier, who is settling into the No. 2 spot in the batting order, drove in a pair of runs in Wednesday’s 9-5 win over Cincinnati to give New York it’s fifth victory in six contests overall. The Yankees’ post All-Star Break surge has pushed them in front of the Rays, who dropped five straight before salvaging the homestand by taking the last two from the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tampa Bay, which sits 2.5 games behind Boston are just a half-game behind Kansas City for the second AL Wild Card spot as well. On the injury front, Rays CF Kevin Kiermaier (hip) and 2B Daniel Robertson (neck) will begin minor league rehab assignments on Thursday while RHP Jake Odorizzi (back) was placed on the 10-day disabled list Wednesday. Yankees SS Didi Gregorius has homered in each of the last three games, while the team’s home run leader, Aaron Judge, rested on Wednesday but is expected to be back in the lineup for Thursday’s opener.
Pitchers: Rays – Chris Archer (7-6, 3.77 ERA) | Yankees – CC Sabathia (9-3, 3.44)
Tampa ace Chris Archer will start the opener and is coming off a tough loss on Saturday against Texas. Archer struck out 11 but hurt himself with a pair of wild pitches and ended up with the loss despite allowing four runs – one earned – and four hits in seven innings. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts and is second in the AL with 167 strikeouts. Archer is making his third start of the season against New York and went 1-1 in the first two while surrendering a total of five runs in 13.1 innings.
CC Sabathia has been probably the most consistent pitcher on this staff and has wins in each of his last two starts and allowed a total of one run in 11 innings over that span. The hefty lefty has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his last nine outings and is 7-1 over that stretch. Sabathia is seeing Tampa Bay for the third time this season as well and failed to complete six innings in either of his first two chances, though he only allowed two runs – one earned – and seven hits in 10 innings.
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I admit, I had given up on Sabathia, but the big guy has proved me wrong this year. He’s been very consistent and the Yankees offense is waking up. They’ve seen enough of Archer to have success against him here tonight. Take the home team.
Pick: Yankees -115
W/L TRENDS
| Tampa Bay |
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win.
- Rays are 19-42 in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Rays are 24-54 in their last 78 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rays are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.
- Rays are 5-0 in Archer’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Rays are 4-1 in Archer’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rays are 6-2 in Archer’s last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Rays are 8-3 in Archer’s last 11 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rays are 8-3 in Archer’s last 11 Thursday starts.
- Rays are 4-11 in Archer’s last 15 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 5-14 in Archer’s last 19 starts vs. American League East.
- Rays are 7-23 in Archer’s last 30 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 3-13 in Archer’s last 16 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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| NY Yankees |
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 23-11 in their last 34 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 4-11 in their last 15 games following a win.
- Yankees are 2-9 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 8-0 in Sabathia’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 7-0 in Sabathia’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 9-1 in Sabathia’s last 10 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 8-1 in Sabathia’s last 9 home starts.
- Yankees are 7-1 in Sabathia’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 4-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 Thursday starts.
- Yankees are 7-2 in Sabathia’s last 9 starts.
- Yankees are 10-4 in Sabathia’s last 14 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 36-16 in Sabathia’s last 52 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 49-22 in Sabathia’s last 71 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 5-11 in Sabathia’s last 16 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
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OU TRENDS
| Tampa Bay |
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 9-1 in Rays last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 Thursday games.
- Over is 8-2 in Rays last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Rays last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 18-6-2 in Rays last 26 games following a win.
- Over is 6-2 in Rays last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Rays last 12 overall.
- Under is 8-3 in Rays last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2-2 in Rays last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Archer’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 16-5 in Archer’s last 21 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 9-3 in Archer’s last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 6-2 in Archer’s last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 6-2 in Archer’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Archer’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Archer’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Archer’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 23-10-1 in Archer’s last 34 starts on grass.
- Over is 25-12-1 in Archer’s last 38 road starts.
|
| NY Yankees |
- Under is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Yankees last 9 games following a win.
- Under is 7-2 in Yankees last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 9-3 in Yankees last 12 overall.
- Over is 12-4-1 in Yankees last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 9-3 in Yankees last 12 on grass.
- Over is 8-3 in Yankees last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 10-4-1 in Yankees last 15 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 15-6-3 in Yankees last 24 Thursday games.
- Over is 19-9-1 in Yankees last 29 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Sabathia’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 8-0 in Sabathia’s last 8 starts on grass.
- Over is 7-1 in Sabathia’s last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Sabathia’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Sabathia’s last 8 Thursday starts.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Sabathia’s last 13 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 15-5-2 in Sabathia’s last 22 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 19-7-2 in Sabathia’s last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 19-7-2 in Sabathia’s last 28 home starts.
- Under is 19-7-2 in Sabathia’s last 28 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 33-16-3 in Sabathia’s last 52 starts overall.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Yankees are 7-0 in Sabathia’s last 7 starts vs. Rays.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Sabathia’s last 9 home starts vs. Rays.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Archer’s last 5 road starts vs. Yankees.
- Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
- Rays are 6-18 in the last 24 meetings in New York.
- Rays are 1-7 in Archer’s last 8 starts vs. Yankees.
- Rays are 0-4 in Archer’s last 4 road starts vs. Yankees.
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