LA Rams (8-6) at San Francisco (11-3)
When: Saturday, December 21st, 2019
Where: Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, CA
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: NFL Network
Opening Odds: San Francisco -6.5/46.5
The Los Angeles Rams’ playoff hopes took a big hit last weekend and they’ll try to pick themselves up before a showdown on the road against the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday night. L.A. got back into the postseason discussion with dominating wins over Arizona and Seattle, but laid an egg last Sunday in a 44-21 loss at Dallas, and the game wasn’t as close as the score indicated. In order for the Rams to make the postseason, they must beat the 49ers and Cardinals, while hoping the Minnesota Vikings lose both their remaining games – Green Bay and Chicago. San Francisco is battling Seattle for not only the NFC West title, but the conference’s top seed, and they might have been looking ahead last Sunday. The ‘Niners, who play at Seattle next week, dropped a 29-22 decision to the Atlanta Falcons at home to drop from the No. 1 seed to the No. 5 despite a career-high 13 receptions from All-Pro tight end George Kittle. The 49ers go for the season sweep as they beat the Rams 20-7 in L.A. during Week 6. San Francisco’s defense is one of the NFL’s best and that was on display after the Rams lone touchdown came on the opening drive and finished with just 157 total yards. Jared Goff looked like a deer in headlights, getting sacked four times and completing 13-of-24 for a career-low 78 yards. The Rams didn’t have a completion longer than 12 yards while going 0-for-9 on third down and 0-for-4 on fourth down. Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 243 yards and ran for a touchdown for San Francisco, while Kittle caught eight balls for 103 yards. The Rams are 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in the past eight meetings, while the under is 5-1 in the previous six in San Fran.
The Rams are defending NFC West champions, but they’ll give that up this year to the 49ers or Seahawks. Los Angeles was a short favorite in Dallas last week, but were outgained 475-289. They rushed for 3 yards in the first half and finished with a total of 22 rushing yards – not a winning formula. Goff is nursing a bruised thumb on his throwing hand sustained in the first half last week. Running back Todd Gurley had a rushing and receiving touchdown against the Cowboys to find the end zone for the 11th time (nine rushing, two receiving) in his last 10 games, but didn’t play against 49ers due to a bruised thigh earlier this season. While the ‘Niners probably have the best tight end in the game, the Ram’s Tyler Higbee is starting to make a name for himself and is coming off three consecutive triple-digit yardage performances.
The 49ers became the first team to win 10 games in a season and also lose at least three games in the final 10 seconds of regulation or overtime since the 2000 Philadelphia Eagles after last week’s debacle versus the Falcons. San Francisco would still be the West champion and conference’s top seed by winning out. Garoppolo has recorded 110 passer rating or better in four of his past five starts and has 26 touchdowns to 11 interceptions on the season, but only one pick in the last four games. Raheem Mostert has five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) in his past four games and leads the team with 662 yards rushing. The defense is ranked No. 2 overall (269.0) and No. 1 versus the pass (154.4) with Arik Armstead leading the way with 10 sacks. San Francisco ranks 21st against the run however, surrendering 114.6 per contest.
San Francisco will come into this one focused after losing to Atlanta last week, while the Rams have basically nothing to play for. The 49ers dominated on defense in the first matchup and I don’t see the Rams all of the sudden finding success against one of the best defenses around.
Pick: 49ers -6.5 (More Week 16 Free Picks)
Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC West.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Rams are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Rams are 22-46 ATS in their last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Rams are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Rams are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog.
Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
49ers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
49ers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
49ers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 16.
49ers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
49ers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.
49ers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
49ers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC West.
Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 7-1 in Rams last 8 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Under is 7-2 in Rams last 9 games overall.
Under is 8-3 in Rams last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Rams last 11 road games.
Under is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Rams last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 12-5 in Rams last 17 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 35-17 in Rams last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 Saturday games.
Over is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 games in Week 16.
Over is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 vs. NFC.
Over is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 vs. NFC West.
Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 home games.
Over is 6-2 in 49ers last 8 games overall.
Over is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games in December.
Under is 13-5 in 49ers last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco.