New England (5-2) at Buffalo (2-5)
When: Monday, October 29th 2018
Where: New Era Field,
Orchard Park, New York
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: New England -13/44.5
The last game on the Week 8 schedule could also be the worst, as the battle between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills boasts the largest spread gap of the week. New England comes in as almost two touchdown favorites against possibly the worst team in football. Of course, the Bills went into Minnesota as 17-point dogs and crushed the Vikings earlier this season. Do they have what it takes to pull off another upset? History says no, as the Patriots have dominated this series, winning the last three meetings against the Bills by an average score of 19 points, and eight of the last 10 games. The Pats are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games in Buffalo including a 46-point triumph back in 2007. The Patriots offense has scored 38 points or more in four consecutive games since losing 26-10 at Detroit in Week 3. Buffalo is down to their third quarterback – journeyman Derek Anderson, who threw three interceptions last week in his Bills debut – a 37-5 setback at Indianapolis. Buffalo has been limited to 13 points or fewer in five of its seven games and could be without starting running back LeSean McCoy, who remained in the league’s concussion protocol on Friday. New England is 72-43-1 lifetime against the Bills.
Brady has also rebounded from the loss at Detroit when he passed for only 133 yards, and has posted a passer rating of at least 102 in each of the past three victories. New England could be without rookie running back Sony Michel, who rushed for 316 yards and four touchdowns in a three-game span before suffering a knee injury in last week’s 38-31 victory at Chicago. The return of Julian Edelman from suspension and addition of Josh Gordon has helped Brady a lot as well, and tight end Rob Gronkowski should be back on Monday. New England ranks 25th overall in total defense (389.9 yards) and against the pass (275.9), but those numbers are likely to improve against the Bills.
Rookie quarterback Josh Allen is injured and Nathan Peterman has been benched, so its Anderson’s gig for now. Not only is McCoy’s status up in the air, but backup running back Chris Ivory was limited in practice Thursday and Friday after hurting his hamstring on Wednesday. McCoy has at least 100 yards from scrimmage in five straight games against New England, so Buffalo is hoping he can go. Its not all doom and gloom for Bills fans, because their defense is not too shabby against the pass, ranking fourth at 210.1 yards per game.
This is a terrible game to watch and to handicap. I’m taking Buffalo plus the points as my 14th best bet on the board this week. Yes, there’s only 14 games. This is Buffalo’s biggest home game of the season, its Monday night, and the Patriots won’t be 100% into his game. If Anderson doesn’t turn the ball over, Buffalo has a chance at keeping this close.
Pick: Bills +13.5
Betting Trends:
- Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 8.
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
- Patriots are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games.
- Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 37-15-2 ATS in their last 54 games in October.
- Patriots are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
- Patriots are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
- Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC East.
- Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Patriots last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC East.
- Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 road games.
- Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games on turf.
- Under is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 51-23 in Patriots last 74 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games in Week 8.
- Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Under is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-2 in Bills last 9 Monday games.
- Over is 14-4 in Bills last 18 home games.
- Over is 14-4 in Bills last 18 games on turf.
- Over is 9-3 in Bills last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Bills last 7 games in October.
- Under is 5-2 in Bills last 7 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Patriots are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Buffalo.
- Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Road team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Buffalo.
