Baltimore (37-38) at Toronto (36-39)
When: Tuesday, June 27th 2017
Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: MASN2, Sportsnet
Opening Odds: Toronto -152/9.5
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Two AL East rivals, who are at the bottom of the division, square off in the first of three on Tuesday night as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays just ended a 3-4 road trip, but are getting production from the top of the order now, as Jose Bautista has been inserted into the No. 1 spot in the lineup. Bautista is 8-for-21 in five games since being elevated to the leadoff spot with a .480 on-base percentage and .571 slugging percentage. He homered and drove in a season-high four runs in Sunday’s 8-2 rout of Kansas City, but has struggled versus Tuesday starter Kevin Gausman to the tune of 4-for-21 with five strikeouts. Toronto, however, has not struggled against the O’s this season, winning seven of the nine meetings thus far. Toronto first baseman Justin Smoak is batting .371 with a .600 slugging percentage during his 10-game hitting streak. Trey Mancini homered for the second straight day on Sunday as the Orioles captured their first road series victory in over two months with an 8-5 triumph at Tampa Bay. Mancini, who is 10-for-22 on his six-game hitting streak, is 8-for-17 with two homers versus Toronto this season. Second baseman Jonathan Schoop has recorded four multi-hit performances in his last six games for Baltimore, with two homers and seven RBIs in that stretch.
Pitchers: Orioles – Kevin Gausman (3-7, 6.47 ERA) | Blue Jays – Joe Biagini (2-6, 4.45)
Gausman might have the better of Bautista, but the rest of the league is a different story. He dropped to 0-3 in his last four starts on Wednesday after allowing three runs on six hits in 5.2 innings of a 5-1 loss to Cleveland. He did strike out a season-high nine batters, but surrendered a home run for the fourth straight start and the eighth time in eight outings. Gausman worked his way in and out of trouble in his last meeting with Toronto on May 20th, allowing two runs on 10 hits in six innings of a no-decision.
Joe Biagini broke a four-start losing streak and posted his first win since May 12th despite allowing four runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings against Texas on Wednesday. Biagini could be making his last start as Aaron Sanchez is set to return soon. Biagini has seen plenty of Baltimore this season, allowing three hits over 4.2 scoreless innings in four relief appearances.
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I don’t trust either pitcher in this contest and as long as this total stays under 11, I’m taking it. You’ll see below that there are a lot of trends that point to the over in this one. I don’t see either pitcher getting through six innings.
Pick: Over 10.5 +100
W/L TRENDS
| Baltimore |
- Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 games on astroturf.
- Orioles are 5-12 in their last 17 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Orioles are 2-5 in their last 7 games following an off day.
- Orioles are 4-10 in their last 14 Tuesday games.
- Orioles are 7-19 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Orioles are 7-21 in their last 28 road games.
- Orioles are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. American League East.
- Orioles are 3-12 in their last 15 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Orioles are 7-15 in Gausman’s last 22 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Orioles are 4-9 in Gausman’s last 13 starts.
- Orioles are 2-5 in Gausman’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Orioles are 2-5 in Gausman’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Orioles are 8-25 in Gausman’s last 33 road starts.
- Orioles are 1-4 in Gausman’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 1-5 in Gausman’s last 6 starts on astroturf.
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| Toronto |
- Blue Jays are 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Blue Jays are 15-7 in their last 22 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Blue Jays are 2-6 in their last 8 Tuesday games.
- Blue Jays are 3-10 in their last 13 games following an off day.
- Blue Jays are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win.
- Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 1-4 in Biagini’s last 5 starts.
- Blue Jays are 0-4 in Biagini’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Blue Jays are 0-4 in Biagini’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
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OU TRENDS
| Baltimore |
- Over is 7-0 in Orioles last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 on astroturf.
- Over is 7-0 in Orioles last 7 vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Orioles last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 vs. an MLB team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-2 in Orioles last 10 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 16-4-1 in Orioles last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 8-2 in Orioles last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 12-4-1 in Orioles last 17 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Orioles last 9 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 16-6-2 in Orioles last 24 Tuesday games.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Orioles last 26 overall.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Orioles last 8 games following an off day.
- Over is 4-0 in Gausman’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Gausman’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Gausman’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Gausman’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-2 in Gausman’s last 10 starts on astroturf.
- Over is 4-1 in Gausman’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Gausman’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Gausman’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 14-5 in Gausman’s last 19 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 24-9-1 in Gausman’s last 34 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 30-12-2 in Gausman’s last 44 starts vs. American League East.
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| Toronto |
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 on astroturf.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Blue Jays last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 games following an off day.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Blue Jays last 5 Tuesday games.
- Over is 9-3-2 in Blue Jays last 14 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Biagini’s last 5 starts on astroturf.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in Gausman’s last 5 road starts vs. Blue Jays.
- Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Toronto.
- Orioles are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
- Orioles are 28-58 in the last 86 meetings in Toronto.
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