Seattle (65-50) at Houston (73-42)
When: Thursday, August 9th 2018
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Houston -147/7
If the Seattle Mariners want to stay in the race for a postseason berth, the time is now. They begin a huge four-game series with the first place Houston Astros on Thursday night with ace James Paxton on the hill for Seattle against Justin Verlander. The fading Mariners sit 8.5 games behind the Astros in the American League West and 2.5 games from the second Wild Card spot. Seattle just allowed 11 runs in back-to-back losses to Texas to fall to 2-7 in its last nine games. Mike Zunino blasted two dingers in Wednesday’s 11-7 loss to give him three among his five hits with four runs scored in his last two games, but is 0-for-10 with seven strikeouts versus Verlander. Houston is coming off a successful 6-2 road trip that started with taking two of three in Seattle, allowing no more than three runs in all eight contests. The Astros are also starting to hit the longball despite not having three of their All-Stars healthy. Houston boasts 13 homers in their last eight games – including Tyler White’s two-run shot in the eighth inning of a 2-1 victory at San Francisco on Tuesday. Shortstop Carlos Correa, who has been out since late June with a lower-back injury, is expected to be activated for this series, according to Houston skipper A.J. Hinch.
Pitchers: Mariners – James Paxton (9-5, 3.51 ERA) | Astros – Justin Verlander (11-6, 2.19)
Paxton, who is 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA in three starts this season against the Astros, allowed three hits while striking out eight over seven solid innings in a 2-0 win against them on July 30th to improve to 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA in his career versus Houston. Paxton has allowed 15 hits with 21 strikeouts against four walks in 20.2 innings against the Astros this season. He is just 1-3 in his last four starts despite allowing three runs on eight hits in seven innings of a 5-1 setback versus Toronto on Saturday.
Verlander is seeking his 200th career win on Thursday and is coming off win No. 199, striking out a career-high-tying 14 strikeouts while allowing one run on four hits in 7.2 innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Verlander has allowed two or fewer runs in three straight starts and five of his last six. He will be making his first start this season versus Seattle, against which he owns a 12-8 mark with a 3.01 ERA in 24 career starts.
I know Paxton has been brilliant against the Astros this season, but the Mariners just aren’t playing well right now. Verlander is coming off a great outing against a great team and should have no problem shutting down Seattle in this one. I’ll lay the number here.
Pick: Astros -159
BETTING TRENDS:
- Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 overall.
- Mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Mariners are 2-7 in their last 9 road games.
- Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mariners are 6-0 in Paxton’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 12-5 in Paxton’s last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 7-3 in Paxton’s last 10 road starts.
- Mariners are 14-6 in Paxton’s last 20 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Mariners are 2-12 in Paxton’s last 14 Thursday starts.
- Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 Thursday games.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.
- Astros are 36-16 in their last 52 during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 games on grass.
- Astros are 41-19 in their last 60 vs. American League West.
- Astros are 36-17 in their last 53 overall.
- Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
- Astros are 4-0 in Verlander’s last 4 Thursday starts.
- Astros are 5-1 in Verlander’s last 6 starts vs. American League West.
- Astros are 9-2 in Verlander’s last 11 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Astros are 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 23-10 in Verlander’s last 33 starts on grass.
- Astros are 23-11 in Verlander’s last 34 starts.
- Astros are 2-5 in Verlander’s last 7 home starts.
- Astros are 1-4 in Verlander’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 on grass.
- Under is 7-3 in Mariners last 10 Thursday games.
- Under is 33-16-2 in Mariners last 51 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Paxton’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Paxton’s last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 11-3 in Paxton’s last 14 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Paxton’s last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 11-4 in Paxton’s last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-3 in Paxton’s last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3 in Paxton’s last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 8-1 in Astros last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 8-1 in Astros last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 games following an off day.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Astros last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 14-6-2 in Astros last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 36-16-2 in Astros last 54 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Verlander’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-2 in Verlander’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 home starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Mariners are 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts vs. Astros.
- Under is 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts vs. Astros.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Mariners are 8-20 in the last 28 meetings.
- Mariners are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
