Chicago Cubs (36-35) at Miami (32-38)
When: Thursday, June 22nd 2017
Where: Marlins Park, Miami, FL
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Chicago -150/8.5
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The Chicago Cubs, who have had a tough time of it on the road this season, will embark on an 11-game trek beginning on Thursday night against the Miami Marlins. Chicago has lost 11 of their last 14 away from Wrigley Field and are 14-19 overall on the road. The trip will take them through D.C. and Cincinnati before returning home on July 4th. The Cubs had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 3-2 loss to San Diego on Wednesday in which they tied a season-low with two hits. Chicago has beaten up on tonight’s starter Jeff Locke, who is 1-5 with a 5.98 ERA in 13 games (11 starts) versus the Cubs and hasn’t beaten them since 2013. Anthony Rizzo has beaten up on Locke, going 11-for-29 with five home runs and has been terrific in the leadoff spot for Chicago. Rizzo had his career-best 14-game hitting streak and his streak of seven straight games reaching base to lead off the game snapped Wednesday, but he is batting .389 with five homers and 17 RBIs over his past 15 contests. Jason Heyward is 11-for-28 and Kris Bryant is 5-for-14 with a homer against Locke. Miami was being no-hit by Washington’s Max Scherzer entering the eighth inning Wednesday before rallying for a 2-1 win, giving the Marlins their fifth straight series victory at home. Four of the Marlins’ last five games have been decided by one run, including three that ended in walk-off fashion. Marlins OF Christian Yelich has reached base in a season-high 14 straight games and has reached safely in 15 straight home games.
Pitchers: Cubs – Jake Arrieta (6-5, 4.64 ERA) | Marlins – Jeff Locke (0-2, 4.58)
Jake Arrieta will look to go deeper in the game than his last two starts, where he has failed to get out of the fifth inning. Arrieta needed 94 pitches to get through 4.2 innings on Saturday at Pittsburgh, allowing three runs (two earned) and four hits while taking the loss. He limited the Marlins to two runs and two hits over six innings in a win June 6th in Chicago, improving to 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three meetings with Miami.
Locke not only has the burden of a 5.98 ERA against Chicago, he is winless in four starts since coming off the disabled list June 1st. Locke hasn’t pitched that bad, allowing three earned runs or fewer in all four outings, but he has had a tough time getting out of innings and twice has failed to get through five. Locke lost to Arrieta and the Cubs in the June 6th contest, when he allowed four runs (three earned) in 4.2 innings.
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I know Arrieta is not the same pitcher he was a few seasons ago, but he has enough to slow down the Marlins and the Cubs should knock around Locke. Chicago is 10-6 versus left-handed starters this year. You can view more picks on our MLB page.
Pick: Cubs -125
W/L TRENDS
| Chi. Cubs |
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
- Cubs are 23-7 in their last 31 Thursday games.
- Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. National League East.
- Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cubs are 4-10 in their last 14 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 3-9 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Cubs are 3-11 in their last 14 road games.
- Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 7-0 in Arrietas last 7 Thursday starts.
- Cubs are 13-4 in Arrietas last 17 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 12-4 in Arrietas last 16 starts vs. National League East.
- Cubs are 13-5 in Arrietas last 18 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 22-9 in Arrietas last 31 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Cubs are 17-7 in Arrietas last 24 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 18-8 in Arrietas last 26 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 27-12 in Arrietas last 39 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 48-22 in Arrietas last 70 starts.
- Cubs are 48-22 in Arrietas last 70 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 37-17 in Arrietas last 54 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Cubs are 0-6 in Arrietas last 6 road starts.
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| Miami |
- Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 home games.
- Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Marlins are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. National League Central.
- Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 Thursday games.
- Marlins are 0-4 in Lockes last 4 starts.
- Marlins are 0-4 in Lockes last 4 starts on grass.
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OU TRENDS
| Chi. Cubs |
- Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 on grass.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Cubs last 9 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 9-2 in Cubs last 11 vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-3 in Cubs last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-3 in Cubs last 11 games following a loss.
- Under is 12-5 in Cubs last 17 road games.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Arrietas last 6 Thursday starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Arrietas last 4 road starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Arrietas last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Arrietas last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Arrietas last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 8-3-2 in Arrietas last 13 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 15-6-1 in Arrietas last 22 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 9-4 in Arrietas last 13 starts on grass.
- Over is 9-4 in Arrietas last 13 starts overall.
|
| Miami |
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Marlins last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 Thursday games.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 15-4-2 in Marlins last 21 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 19-6-2 in Marlins last 27 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Marlins last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Marlins last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 8-3-1 in Marlins last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 8-3 in Marlins last 11 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 9-4 in Marlins last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Cubs are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami.
- Cubs are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.
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