Dallas (6-4) at New England (9-1)
When: Sunday, November 24th, 2019
Where: Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New England -7/47
The NFL has cleared the late afternoon Sunday schedule to set apart a huge matchup between two Super Bowl hopefuls in the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots. Both are coming off of shaky wins with the Cowboys barely getting by the Matt Stafford-less Detroit Lions while the Patriots eked out a win over the Philadelphia Eagles in a game where their offense looked stale. The Patriots are laying almost a touchdown at many PayPerHead services against a team that really seems to struggle against superior competition. The Cowboys are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread (ATS) against teams with a winning record this season and 5-11 ATs in that role over the last three seasons. They also don’t fare well in this series, losing five of the last six. The Patriots thrive against NFC teams, going 10-3 ATS and SU in their last 13 such contests and are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record. New England has won 17 in a row at Gillette Stadium and will put that streak on the line when they host the NFC East-leading Cowboys. While the Patriots offense has sputtered, Dallas has won three of four, scoring at least 35 points in each of the victories. The Patriots won the most recent matchup in 2015 – a 30-6 triumph at Dallas as eight-point favorites.
Just like they did against the New York Giants a few weeks ago, Dallas was sloppy early, fell behind and had to dig themselves out of a hole in the win over Detroit last week. Dak Prescott earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for the second time this season after throwing for 444 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in last week’s win at Detroit. No. 3 wideout Randall Cobb has put together back-to-back 100-yard games while hauling in a touchdown reception in each to give Prescott a dangerous trio with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has been limited to a combined 92 yards on 36 carries the past two weeks as the Cowboys have been opening up their offense. Defensively, Dallas ranks seventh overall in yards allowed (322.1) and seventh in points (19.7). They will host Buffalo on Thursday – Thanksgiving.
Tom Brady had seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in the team’s first three games but has just seven touchdowns and five interceptions in the team’s last seven games. The Patriots did struggle on offence last week and against Baltimore the game before, but they were both on the road. They’re back at home Sunday where Brady has been much better. He has a 103.9 passer rating in New England compared 81.9 away from home. Brady could be without wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (ankle), but should see the return of left tackle Isaiah Wynn from injured reserve. This should be the best defense that Dallas has faced. New England’s defense leads the league in points (10.8) and total yards (249.9) allowed while ranking first in interceptions (18) and third in sacks (37.0). The Pats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.
New England just doesn’t look like the same dominating team we’re used to, especially against good teams. Dallas qualifies as a good team and their offense has been humming along. Look for Dak and company to keep this one close.
Pick: Cowboys +6.5 (More Week 12 Free Picks)
Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
Cowboys are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 12.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Patriots are 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 home games.
Patriots are 47-20 ATS in their last 67 games overall.
Patriots are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win.
Patriots are 22-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games following a ATS win.
Over is 10-1 in Cowboys last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 9-1 in Cowboys last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 road games.
Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games in Week 12.
Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games on fieldturf.
Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in November.
Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games following a straight up win.
Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 9-1 in Patriots last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in November.
Under is 16-6 in Patriots last 22 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
