Green Bay (8-2) at San Francisco (9-1)
When: Sunday, November 24th, 2019
Where: Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, CA
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: San Francisco -3.5/44
Both the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers are gearing up for a big playoff run and their battle Sunday night could determine homefield advantage in the NFC. Right now, the Niners are the No. 1 seed with a 9-1 record, but Green Bay is right behind them at 8-2, along with the New Orleans Saints. A loss would make things interesting in each team’s division, as Green Bay holds a slim half-game lead over Minnesota, while San Fran is one-game up on Seattle. The Packers come into this one fully healthy after a bye week and a 24-16 win at home against the Carolina Panthers. The 49ers are coming off a tight one where they rallied in the fourth quarter to get a 36-30 win against the Arizona Cardinals after falling to the Seahawks on Nov. 11. Green Bay earned a 33-30 win over the 49ers at Lambeau Field last October, while gaining 521 yards of total offense including 425 passing yards from Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have been one of the best cover teams in the league, going 7-3 ATS including 3-1 away from home, while the Niners are 5-4-1 ATS.
The Packers have won five of their last six and Rodgers is having another strong season with 2718 passing yards so far with a 17:2 touchdown to interception ratio. Rodgers completed 17-of-29 for 233 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions against Carolina, but running back Aaron Jones rushed for 93 yards and three touchdowns, giving him 11 scores on the season. Linebacker Preston Smith leads a defense that has a plus-9 turnover margin (16 takeaways, seven giveaways) and ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed per game and 27th in yards allowed per carry. Green Bay is also vulnerable through the air, allowing 257.8 yards a game. The Packers will be at the New York Giants next Sunday.
Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for 2,478 yards and 18 touchdowns with 10 interceptions this season, and 11 of those TDs have come over the past four games. The team has the league’s second-ranked rushing offense, and it’s led by Matt Breida, who has run 109 times for 542 yards. The 49ers average 149 rushing yards per game and they run the ball on 52.3% of their plays, putting them just behind the Ravens for most rushing plays. Garoppolo saw his star tight end George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) returned to practice Thursday and the 49ers are hopeful he will available after missing the past two games with knee and ankle injuries. San Francisco is tops in the league in passing defense (142.5) and is tied for the NFL lead with 39 sacks. The schedule doesn’t get an easier after Sunday with back-to-back road games at Baltimore and New Orleans.
People seem to be giving up on this 49ers team after a couple of close wins and a loss to Seattle, but I believe they’re still one of the best in the NFC. Their defense will get after Rodgers, while Garoppolo should be able to pick apart a below average Green Bay defense.
Pick: 49ers -3.5 (More Week 12 Free Picks)
Packers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Packers are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November.
Packers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 12.
Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
49ers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
49ers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 14-30-2 ATS in their last 46 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
49ers are 9-20-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
49ers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
49ers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
49ers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
49ers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Under is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games in November.
Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a bye week.
Under is 8-2 in Packers last 10 games in Week 12.
Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 8-2 in Packers last 10 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Packers last 8 vs. NFC.
Over is 20-7 in Packers last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 20-8 in Packers last 28 road games.
Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 games on grass.
Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 vs. NFC.
Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games in Week 12.
Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 9-3 in 49ers last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 12-5 in 49ers last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Packers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in San Francisco.
Packers are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 meetings.