Indianapolis (6-4) at Houston (6-4)
When: Thursday, November 21st, 2019
Where: NRG Stadium,
Houston, Texas
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Houston -5.5/46.5
Week 12 of the NFL schedule kicks off with an important game involving two teams tied atop the AFC South Division, as the Indianapolis Colts visit the Houston Texans. Both teams had opposite results in Week 11, with the Colts rebounding from an embarrassing home loss to the Dolphins to destroy the Jacksonville Jaguars 33-13, while the Texans were steamrolled in Baltimore 41-7. This is the second meeting between the teams, with the Colts taking the first meeting 30-23 in Week 7. Indy came out of their bye that week and Jacoby Brissett had the best game of his career, completing 26-of-39 for 326 yards and four touchdowns with a season-high rating of 126.7. Zach Pascal caught six passes for 106 yards and two scores giving the Colts their third straight win in the series. Houston made things interesting on a 4-yard touchdown pass from Deshaun Watson to DeAndre Hopkins, but a Colts safety with 2:41 left essentially clinched it. Watson was 23-for-34 for 308 yards and that touchdown but was picked twice and sacked three times. DeAndre Hopkins caught nine passes for 106 yards and Kenny Stills had four for 105. The Colts are 5-1 against the spread in the past six meetings, while the under has cashed in five of the last seven.
The Colts’ first nine games of the season had been decided by seven points or fewer before the blowout win over Jacksonville on Sunday. Brissett returned after missing a game injured and threw for a score while also rushing for one. Indy ran for 264 yards – most since 2004 – as both Jonathan Williams and Marlon Mack had 100-yard games. Mack, who leads the team with 862 yards rushing and seven touchdowns, fractured his hand and is out indefinitely. Wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has tormented the Texans throughout his career, is hopeful of returning after sitting out three games due to a calf strain. Safety Khari Willis suffered a concussion and won’t play Thursday for a Colts defense that ranks 11th overall (325.6), 11th against the pass (228.8), and ninth versus the run (96.8). The Colts have covered six straight games vs. the AFC South.
Nothing went right for Houston last Sunday in Baltimore, as the Ravens dominated from start to finish. That was the first time in Watson’s NFL career as a starter that he lost a regular-season game by more than eight points and it was also the first game of his pro career where he didn’t have either a passing or rushing score. Watson was 18-for-29 for 169 yards with an interception, lost fumble and was sacked six times. No. 2 receiver Will Fuller was out again with a hamstring injury but is being called a game-time decision for Thursday. Hopkins, who is second in the NFL with 75 receptions, has at least seven catches in his last six games, while running back Carlos Hyde has 765 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Houston’s defense allows 272.4 yards passing a game – 29th in the league and cornerback Lonnie Johnson, who left last week’s game with a foot injury, is questionable. Houston is 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine following an ATS loss.
I’m not going to overreact to last week’s loss in Baltimore, because this Houston team usually bounces back strong after losses. The Colts are a formidable opponent, but the short-rest on the road will give the advantage over to the Texans.
Pick: Texans -3.5 (More Week 12 Free Picks)
Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC South.
Colts are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Colts are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 Thursday games.
Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Colts are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games in November.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Texans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Texans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Texans are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Texans are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.
Texans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Texans are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 games in Week 12.
Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games following a straight up win.
Under is 13-3 in Colts last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 11-4 in Colts last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Colts last 11 games in November.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 13-6 in Colts last 19 vs. AFC South.
Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-1 in Texans last 8 home games.
Under is 5-1 in Texans last 6 vs. AFC South.
Under is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games in Week 12.
Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Texans last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 11-4 in Texans last 15 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 19-7 in Texans last 26 vs. AFC.
Under is 19-7 in Texans last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Texans last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Under is 7-3 in Texans last 10 games in November.
Colts are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.
Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Road team is 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
