St Louis (26-30) at Cincinnati (27-30)
When: Wednesday, June 7th 2017
Where: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: FSN Midwest, FSN Ohio
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The Cincinnati Reds have already taken the first two games of a four-game series with the rival St. Louis Cardinals and will look for the series win on Wednesday night at Great American Ballpark. There was little drama in last night’s 13-1 crushing of the Cardinals until the eighth inning when Reds utility man Scooter Gennett came up having already hit three home runs in the game. He got behind 0-2 then launched his fourth homer into the right field stands to become the 17th player in history to accomplish that feat. He’s also the second one ever to have a grand slam as part of a four-homer night. He came into the the game with three homers on the season and 38 in his five-year career. He also knocked in 10 of Cincinnati’s 13 runs. St. Louis, who is really struggling, has lost a season-worst five straight games to start a seven-game road trip and has dropped 10 of its past 13 overall. One of the reasons for the skid is All-Star 1B Matt Carpenter, who is 4-for-35 over his past nine games and doesn’t have an RBI in his last 14. On the other end of the spectrum, Cincinnati’s Zack Cozart, who is second in the majors with a .353 average, is 7-for-11 over the past three games. Lance Lynn will be tasked to slow down Gennett and company tonight and will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo.
Pitchers: Cardinals – Lance Lynn (4-3, 2.97 ERA) | Reds – Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 6.24)
Lynn hasn’t recorded a victory in his last five starts and has pitched six innings or fewer in four of those outings. Lynn has plenty of experience against the Reds and is 9-4 with a 3.22 ERA in 18 career appearances (15 starts) against them, including a victory back in late April when he gave up one run and six hits over six innings. Gennett is 8-for-23 with no homers against Lynn, who has also struggled with Joey Votto (11-for-25, seven walks).
Arroyo is also pitching poorly of late, going 0-2 in his last five starts and has given up five or more runs in each of his two losses during the stretch. The veteran righty is 3-2 in six home starts despite a 5.35 ERA and has surrendered 10 homers in 33.2 innings and has allowed 19 total – most in the majors. Arroyo is 8-18 with a 4.91 ERA in 41 career appearances (39 starts) versus the Cardinals and has enjoyed success against Yadier Molina (12-for-59) and Dexter Fowler (4-for-21).
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Hmm, which of these two pitchers will do enough to keep their team in it. Lynn is a better pitcher while Arroyo really just needs to retire. 19 home runs allowed is horrendous. I’ll take the Cardinals here tonight to finally get a win on the road trip while I’m switching back-and-forth between Game 3 of the NBA Finals.
Pick: Cardinals -135
W/L TRENDS
| St. Louis |
- Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 Wednesday games.
- Cardinals are 42-19 in their last 61 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
- Cardinals are 5-16 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 2-9 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Cardinals are 0-6 in their last 6 road games.
- Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a loss.
- Cardinals are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 overall.
- Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cardinals are 4-0 in Lynn’s last 4 Wednesday starts.
- Cardinals are 5-2 in Lynn’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
- Cardinals are 12-5 in Lynn’s last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cardinals are 7-3 in Lynn’s last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 34-16 in Lynn’s last 50 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 0-4 in Lynn’s last 4 starts.
- Cardinals are 0-4 in Lynn’s last 4 starts on grass.
- Cardinals are 0-6 in Lynn’s last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
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| Cincinnati |
- Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Reds are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 21-46 in their last 67 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Reds are 3-8 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Reds are 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win.
- Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 13-3 in Arroyo’s last 16 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Reds are 4-1 in Arroyo’s last 5 home starts.
- Reds are 3-7 in Arroyo’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Reds are 3-7 in Arroyo’s last 10 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 3-13 in Arroyo’s last 16 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 1-7 in Arroyo’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
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OU TRENDS
| St. Louis |
- Under is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 Wednesday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 14-5 in Cardinals last 19 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 12-5 in Cardinals last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games following a loss.
- Over is 19-9 in Cardinals last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 10-2 in Lynn’s last 12 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 13-4 in Lynn’s last 17 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 19-6-2 in Lynn’s last 27 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 11-4 in Lynn’s last 15 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4-1 in Lynn’s last 15 Wednesday starts.
- Over is 5-2 in Lynn’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Lynn’s last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 10-4 in Lynn’s last 14 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 20-8 in Lynn’s last 28 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 14-6 in Lynn’s last 20 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 35-15-2 in Lynn’s last 52 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 17-8-1 in Lynn’s last 26 road starts.
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| Cincinnati |
- Over is 21-7-2 in Reds last 30 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 8-3 in Reds last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Reds last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 40-17-6 in Reds last 63 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 7-3 in Reds last 10 home games.
- Over is 11-5-1 in Reds last 17 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Arroyo’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Arroyo’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 5-0 in Arroyo’s last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in Arroyo’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in Arroyo’s last 5 home starts.
- Under is 19-7-1 in Arroyo’s last 27 Wednesday starts.
- Over is 13-5-1 in Arroyo’s last 19 starts on grass.
- Over is 13-5-1 in Arroyo’s last 19 starts overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Arroyo’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 18-8-2 in Arroyo’s last 28 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 42-20-4 in Arroyo’s last 66 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Over is 5-0 in Arroyo’s last 5 starts vs. Cardinals.
- Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in Arroyo’s last 5 home starts vs. Cardinals.
- Cardinals are 11-4 in Lynn’s last 15 starts vs. Reds.
- Over is 8-3-1 in Lynn’s last 12 starts vs. Reds.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
- Cardinals are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.
- Reds are 1-7 in Arroyo’s last 8 starts vs. Cardinals.
- Reds are 0-4 in Arroyo’s last 4 home starts vs. Cardinals.
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