2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Decline
By: Insider Edge Sports
Virginia Tech Hokies
2003 Record: 8-5
2004 Projected Record 5-7
Overview
Not only are the Hokies devoid of any real superstars for thefirst time in
recent memory, they will be playing their first season in themuch tougher
ACC Conference. They ended last season losing 4 of theirlast 5 games and
were once again considered a fraud at seasons end. That skid will run into
this season with a sure first game loss against USC and countlessdifficult
ACC battles throughout the season. The Hokies are an amazing29-2 through
October the last 4 years but its been the latter part ofthe season that
has done them in. We have them going 4-4 before Novemberthis season with
their only wins coming against Duke, Western Michigan, Wake Forestand
Florida A&M. The defense, which has always been thetrademark of this team,
should be decent yet again but like past years, they will be thepossibility
of underachievement. After allowing 20 or more points only2 times in their
first 8 games (15.5 ppg), they allowed that total in each of theirlast 5
games (35.0 ppg) including 30 or more 4 times. They do havean exciting
player in QB Bryan Randall and it will be up to him to give theoffense
enough explosiveness to try and outscore their opponents. If that doesnt
happen, it could be a very long season and that is the way weare leaning,
as his supporting cast is very thin. Marcus Vick will bein the mix but not
until his suspension is lifted.
Schedule
It certainly doesnt get any easier with the move to a differentconference. They replace UConn, Rutgers and Temple with NC State,Maryland and Georgia
Tech. Lucky for them Miami made the move as well so theykeep the Canes on
the schedule along with rival West Virginia. To top everythingoff, they
start the college football season with USC in the BCA Classic. The only
good thing is that NC State and Maryland, along with Virginiaare at home
while they miss Florida St. altogether.
Best Chance Of Being Upset
October 9th at Wake Forest 1st true road game ofthe year and against an
improving and experienced Demon Deacon squad.
Summary
What got the Hokies to this level was coach Frank Beamer thinkingoutside
the box special teams demons could win games, defensesthat created mayhem
could score points and dominate. That has been the caseearly on in the
season against the cupcakes but not late in the campaign. A tougher all
around schedule wont help things but only 4 true road gamesdoes help. If
they can pull off a couple mild upsets, they may go bowling yetagain but it
seems unlikely.
Colorado Buffaloes
2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 3-8
Overview
It was a very difficult offseason for the University and thefootball team
especially so how that plays out this fall is anyones guess. There is
talent on this team but not enough that will turn them aroundfrom a very
disappointing 2003 season. The schedule is impossible onceagain with only
5 home games on the slate. The key, as it usually is, isat the QB position
and Joel Klatt. Last season, Klatt had good receivers tothrow to but now
the receivers are mediocre, so he has to prove he’s the type ofquarterback
that can make everyone around him better. A tough task indeedespecially
with Jeremy Bloom unlikely to play. His loss hurts specialteams a great
deal as well. The running game wont be the same asthey lost a lot and it
will be up to Bobby Purify, who missed most of last season, topick up the
slack. The defense should be ok but certainly not dominant. There’s
experience and tons of athleticism, but not much in the way ofsize. The
pass defense has to become far tighter. The transfer of CB SammyJoseph and
DE Marques Harris is a killer. The spring season was differentthan what
most teams went through as they went through practice not knowingwhether
suspended coach Gary Barnett would retain his job. Thatis a lot of
valuable time that was not used at 100% and that will show comefall
practice.
Schedule
After facing 10 teams who made it to bowl games last season,they face 9
teams this year who were in the post season a year ago. The strange thing
is, they lost one of their two games against non-bowl teams in2003 (Baylor)
so nothing is a guarantee this season. We see just one certainwin (home
against Iowa St.). Everything else they will have to workfor the victory
and that includes games against Kansas and North Texas. Oklahoma is off the
schedule but is replaced with Texas while an improving Texas A&Mteam
replaces Texas Tech.
Best Chance Of Being Upset
September 4th Colorado St. This wouldnt reallybe an upset but it wont
be a start they are looking for if they lose.
Summary
Adversity can bring teams together and pull off a number of surprisesbut it
might be simply too difficult for Colorado to accomplish that. Their
schedule is brutal and that will hold them back on any chanceof improvement
from last year. The Big 12 is becoming more difficult eachyear with most
every team having the ability to win on any given day. Coloradofalls into
that category but for every upset they pull off, they will have3 losses
along side it.
Arkansas Razorbacks
2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 3-8
Overview
About the only certainty at this point is that Matt Jones isfinally the
undisputed starter at quarterback after a solid spring but theloss of 18
starters from 2003 will be too much to overcome. Jones isthe only guy
returning on the offense that struggled at times a season ago. Jones will
be operating behind five new O-linemen this fall and while thetalent is
there, the experience is not. The chances of the Hogs matchingtheir 34
rushing touchdowns from last season are slim to none. Thisteam will
struggle putting points on the board and the coaching staff andfans will be
holding their collective breaths every time Jones takes a hit. Perhaps no
one player, in the SEC or the entire country, will mean more tohis teams
success than Jones. If they lose him, forget even an averageseason. The
defense is in better shape but not by much. With the lossof six
scholarship defensive backs and all four starters in the secondary,Arkansas
will have their hands full against the pass this season. 7 of their 11
games will feature better than average quarterbacks so the unitwill need to
figure things out right away. Jones will fight on everydown but one player
cannot carry a whole team and the rebuilding in Fayetteville looksto be
inevitable.
Schedule
Arkansas should start the season 2-1 but after that, we see justone more
win from this tough SEC schedule. There’s a brutal mid-seasonstretch that
could be even worse if Alabama and South Carolina are strong,while Texas
will be looking for early payback in the second game of the season. Their 4
conference home games Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi andLSU will be one
of the most difficult home schedules in the whole conference. Mississippi
St. looks to be the only game won in the second half but eventhat is no
guarantee.
Best Chance Of Being Upset
September 25th Alabama This is their first conferencehome game and
Alabama could be a surprise in the SEC this season.
Summary
The Hogs wont be bowling this year unless Matt Jones CANcarry the whole
team on his shoulders. It wont happen but expect 110%from this kid and
110% from most everyone but it just wont be enough. This team has lost 20
games over the past 4 years so there never was any serious threatin the
conference but the expectations were much higher back then. No one expects
much from them this season and while that helps some teams asfar as
pressure goes, there are too many holes for them to have a successful2004.
New Mexico Lobos
2003 Record: 8-5
2004 Projected Record 4-7
Overview
We had the Lobos in our Teams on the Rise list in 2003 but thatwont be the
case this season. After increasing its win total in eachof the past five
seasons, New Mexico will be hard-pressed to eclipse last year’s8-5 record.
Add to that having to replace 23 seniors from the most veteranteam in
school history and that spells a decline for sure. The runninggame will
once again be the strength of the offense but replacing QB CaseyKelly will
be no easy task. Kelly didnt light up the stat sheetsbut he was
consistent and he didnt make the mistakes that so oftenhurt teams. Kole
McKamey will take over and while he is more mobile than Kellywas, his
accuracy is lacking. Teams will crowd the box against thisoffense in order
to stop the run and should find some success. No matterhow big this line
is, they cant block 8 defenders. The defense was upand down all season
last year and that trend should continue again in 2004, as theywill face
some high-powered attacks. They allowed 30 or more pointsin 4 of their
last 6 games in 2003 after a great start. Their secondaryis very thin in
the middle and they have to replace three All-Mountain West Conference
players on the line. It could be worse, but it could bea whole lot better
also.
Schedule
The Mountain West isnt the toughest conference in the countrybut parity is
evident so the Lobos will have a tough time coming close to their5-2
conference mark from a season ago. They could easily be0-3 and even 1-6
before they know it. The only more than possible win isat New Mexico St.
but the Aggies are looking tougher than ever so that isnta given either.
Starting the season against Washington St., Texas Tech and OregonSt. should
toughen them up for conference play but it might also do bad thingsto the
young psyches of the newcomers.
Best Chance Of Being Upset
September 25th New Mexico St. Coming into thisgame 0-3 and with the
Aggies smelling a bowl, this will be a toughie for the Lobos.
Summary
The run had to end sometime for New Mexico. After reelingoff better and
better seasons the last 5 years, they are headed for some disappointment
this year. They started last year 1-3 and finished the regularseason 7-1
so anything can happen but it was the veterans that led them toregroup the
way they did. They dont have that luxury this season. Coach Rocky Long
has put together a very successful program after years of adversity. If
McKamey comes along quicker than expected, another shot at theMWC Title is
possible but its unlikely.
Akron Zips
2003 Record: 7-5
2004 Projected Record 3-8
Overview
Usually a coaching change follows several years of bad play butin the case
of Akron, its just the opposite. The Zips won 23 gamesthe past 4 seasons
but that wasnt good enough to save the job of Lee Owens. Enter new head
coach J.D. Brookhart, coming over from Pittsburgh where he servedas the
Panthers offensive coordinator for 3 years. Brookhart bringsin respect
right away but what he doesnt bring in is experience. He has never been a
head coach at any level nor has he ever called any plays. He has the luxury
of having Charlie Frye at QB so the offense will be just fineonce again as
long as they can find a running game to compliment Frye. Scoring points
wont be the problem but outscoring opponents will be. The defense expects
to be just as bad if not worse than last season. They return6 starters
from the 81st ranked defense in the country from a season agoand no one
returns in the secondary that was the best part of their stopunit in 2003.
Inconsistency will remain as the Zips never seemed to be ableto come up
with the really big stop, especially in the red zone, and nowthings could
be much worse with a very green back seven and little size upfront. They
allowed 160 (32 ppg) points in their final 5 games last year andexpect that
to continue heading into this year.
Schedule
Four of their first 5 games this season are on the road so aquick start to
get them going is not in the cards. Three of those gamesare almost certain
losses (at Penn St., at Virginia and at Northern Illinois) witha marginal
game at Kent St. The rest of the MAC schedule isnthorrible as they get a
break with Marshall and Miami both being at home, however theywill most
likely go 0-2 in those games. Home games against Buffaloand Ball St. are
the likely MAC wins with everything else being up in the air.
Best Chance Of Being Upset
September 11th Middle Tennessee St. The Blue Raiders wontbe scaring many
teams but this game falls in-between a Penn St. and Virginia roadsandwich
so the Zips better be careful.
Summary
A new coach should bring in some renewed enthusiasm but he isntbringing in
any players that can help the defense. Akron was 10th inthe MAC, allowing
404 ypg last year and if they dont tighten up, all of theirgames will turn
into track meets. Over half of the players on their twodeep depth chart
are either freshmen or sophomores. Akron games will be funto watch but if
you are a Zips fan, the outcomes likely wont be in yourfavor.
Next up we will be looking at some of the rules changes, instantreplay
arguments and BCS discussions along with other handicapping adviseheading
into the fall.
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