Yankees vs Red Sox Preview & Free Pick | Prediction [8/3/18]

NY Yankees (68-39) at Boston (76-34)
When: Friday, August 3rd 2018
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: New York -138/8.5

The Boston Red Sox made an emphatic statement in Thursday’s opener of a pivotal four-game series and will look to keep the bats hot when they play the second against the New York Yankees on Friday night. Steve Pearce homered off three different pitchers Thursday night and drove in a career-best six runs as the Red Sox rallied from an early deficit to thump the New York Yankees 15-7. The win increased Boston’s lead over the second-place Yankees to 6.5 games in the American League East. The Yankees jumped on Red Sox starter Brian Johnson for three runs in the first on a three-run homer by Didi Gregorius, then added another run in the second before Boston scored the next 10 runs, including eight in a game-changing fourth inning. Gregorius hit a second home run to get the Yankees back within 10-5 in the fifth inning, but Ian Kinsler and Andrew Benintendi doubled in runs and Pearce capped his first three-homer game with a two-run blast off Luis Cessa in the sixth, breaking the game open. Gregorious has multiple hits in each of his last three games and is batting .311 with five homers and 21 RBIs in 27 games since the start of last month. Boston RF Mookie Betts continues to torment New York, hitting .462 with nine extra-base hits, nine RBIs and 14 runs scored in 10 games versus the Bronx Bombers this season. Luis Severino looks to turn things around on the mound when he opposes former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello.

Pitchers: Yankees – Luis Severino (14-4, 2.94 ERA) | Red Sox – Rick Porcello (13-4, 4.03)

Severino has been awful lately, posting an 8.85 ERA in four starts since beating Boston on July 1st and has failed to go past five innings in any of those appearances. Severino is coming off his worst two outings of the season, surrendering a total of 13 runs (12 earned) and 19 hits across 9.1 innings in losses to Tampa Bay and Kansas City. He threw 6.2 scoreless innings in a win against the Red Sox last month.

Porcello is up to 13 wins on the season despite an ERA over four, after allowing four runs over 5.2 innings against Minnesota on Saturday. Porcello continues to struggle at Fenway Park, posting a 5.10 ERA there as opposed to 3.14 in 12 road starts. He threw seven scoreless innings in a home win against the Yankees on April 12th before allowing five runs over 5.1 innings in a no-decision May 9th at Yankee Stadium.

I’m really worried about Severino right now, not just because he’s getting hit hard, but the fact his last two duds were against Tampa Bay and Kansas City. The Red Sox are going for the kill this weekend and got off to a terrific start on Thursday – as we predicted. I can see another offensive explosion from Boston here on Friday. I’ll take the best team in Baseball as a home dog any day of the week.

Pick: Red Sox +120

BETTING TRENDS:

• Yankees are 41-13 in their last 54 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 40-13 in their last 53 games following a loss.
• Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 42-14 in their last 56 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 54-24 in their last 78 games on grass.
• Yankees are 35-16 in their last 51 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 19-9 in their last 28 during game 2 of a series.
• Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
• Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 Friday games.
• Yankees are 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Yankees are 8-1 in Severino’s last 9 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Yankees are 10-2 in Severino’s last 12 starts vs. American League East.
• Yankees are 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Yankees are 7-2 in Severino’s last 9 road starts.
• Yankees are 21-6 in Severino’s last 27 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Yankees are 24-7 in Severino’s last 31 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Yankees are 16-5 in Severino’s last 21 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 38-13 in Severino’s last 51 starts on grass.
• Yankees are 20-7 in Severino’s last 27 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 19-7 in Severino’s last 26 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 38-14 in Severino’s last 52 starts.
• Yankees are 19-7 in Severino’s last 26 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Yankees are 3-8 in Severino’s last 11 Friday starts.

• Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Red Sox are 11-3 in their last 14 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 38-14 in their last 52 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 59-22 in their last 81 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Red Sox are 39-15 in their last 54 home games.
• Red Sox are 37-15 in their last 52 overall.
• Red Sox are 37-15 in their last 52 games on grass.
• Red Sox are 44-18 in their last 62 vs. American League East.
• Red Sox are 52-23 in their last 75 games following a win.
• Red Sox are 58-26 in their last 84 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Red Sox are 43-20 in their last 63 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 37-18 in their last 55 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
• Red Sox are 7-0 in Porcello’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 6-1 in Porcello’s last 7 starts.
• Red Sox are 6-1 in Porcello’s last 7 starts on grass.
• Red Sox are 5-1 in Porcello’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 5-1 in Porcello’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 21-7 in Porcello’s last 28 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 19-7 in Porcello’s last 26 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Red Sox are 21-8 in Porcello’s last 29 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Red Sox are 7-3 in Porcello’s last 10 home starts.
• Red Sox are 9-4 in Porcello’s last 13 starts vs. American League East.
• Red Sox are 3-7 in Porcello’s last 10 Friday starts.

• Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 overall.
• Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 on grass.
• Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 8-1 in Yankees last 9 during game 2 of a series.
• Under is 8-2 in Yankees last 10 Friday games.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Over is 6-2-1 in Yankees last 9 vs. American League East.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 5-2-2 in Yankees last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2-2 in Yankees last 9 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 7-3-2 in Yankees last 12 games following a loss.
• Under is 18-8-2 in Yankees last 28 road games.
• Over is 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts overall.
• Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-2-1 in Severino’s last 9 Friday starts.
• Over is 19-7 in Severino’s last 26 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Under is 5-2-1 in Severino’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 road starts.
• Under is 7-3-1 in Severino’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

• Under is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 10-2 in Red Sox last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 13-3 in Red Sox last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 7-2 in Red Sox last 9 games following a win.
• Under is 10-3 in Red Sox last 13 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 18-7-1 in Red Sox last 26 home games.
• Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 10-4 in Red Sox last 14 overall.
• Under is 10-4 in Red Sox last 14 on grass.
• Over is 7-3-1 in Red Sox last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 7-3 in Red Sox last 10 during game 2 of a series.
• Over is 5-0 in Porcello’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Under is 3-0-2 in Porcello’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 2-0-2 in Porcello’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in Porcello’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in Porcello’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Porcello’s last 7 home starts.
• Over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Porcello’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
• Under is 11-3 in Porcello’s last 14 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 11-3-1 in Porcello’s last 15 starts overall.
• Over is 10-3-1 in Porcello’s last 14 starts on grass.

• Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.
• Under is 5-0-2 in Porcello’s last 7 home starts vs. Yankees.
• Under is 6-1-2 in Porcello’s last 9 starts vs. Yankees.
• Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts vs. Red Sox.
• Yankees are 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 starts vs. Red Sox.
• Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
• Yankees are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Boston.

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