NY Yankees (68-38) at Boston (75-34)
When: Thursday, August 2nd 2018
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Boston -130/10
The Boston Red Sox have been slowly putting some distance between them and the New York Yankees in the American League East, and have a chance to really do some damage when the teams open a four-game series at Fenway Park on Thursday night. Boston begins the series with a 5.5-game lead over second-place New York after splitting a two-game interleague series with the Philadelphia Phillies, scoring only three runs. The Yankees will get a break in the series after Boston ace Chris Sale, scheduled to start the series opener, was placed on the disabled list Tuesday due to shoulder inflammation. Sale has historically dominated the Yankees lineup. The Red Sox own the best home record in the majors (38-15) but have dropped five of nine to New York this season. The Yankees improved their already solid bullpen with the acquisition of Zach Britton and added starting pitchers J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn in an attempt to overtake Boston and avoid the wild-card game. Happ is dealing with hand, foot and mouth disease but is still scheduled to start Saturday’s game. Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres homered twice in Wednesday’s loss to the Orioles, including his major league-best seventh three-run homer.
Pitchers: Yankees – CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.53 ERA) | Red Sox – Brian Johnson (1-3, 3.45)
CC Sabathia is coming off his first start in two weeks and lasted just 4.2 innings against Kansas City on Saturday, leaving after striking out eight while allowing two runs on six hits. The hefty-lefty was hit hard in his last two starts before the All-Star break, giving up nine runs over 10.2 innings at Cleveland and Baltimore. Sabathia tossed seven innings of one-run ball to beat Boston on June 29th and is 6-0 against them since July 16th, 2016.
Brian Johnson moved to the bullpen with the acquisition of Nathan Eovaldi, but is forced to start again with Sale out. Johnson has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last five starts, but 5.2 innings is his longest outing during than span. He shutout the Twins on four hits over 5.2 innings last time out and limited Detroit to two unearned runs over five innings in his previous turn. Johnson has made three scoreless relief appearances this season against the Yankees.
This pitching matchup is pretty even because Johnson has pitched well when asked and Sabathia has struggled in his last few starts. The Red Sox are awfully tough to beat, especially at Fenway. Boston has also been on a roll when facing lefties, going 7-1 in their last eight against them. I’ll take the Sox in the opener.
Pick: Red Sox -108
BETTING TRENDS:
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Yankees are 41-12 in their last 53 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 40-12 in their last 52 games following a loss.
- Yankees are 54-23 in their last 77 games on grass.
- Yankees are 36-16 in their last 52 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Yankees are 35-16 in their last 51 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 13-6 in their last 19 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 45-22 in their last 67 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 59-29 in their last 88 overall.
- Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 9-1 in Sabathia’s last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Sabathia’s last 7 Thursday starts.
- Yankees are 4-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 starts.
- Yankees are 4-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 21-6 in Sabathia’s last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 18-6 in Sabathia’s last 24 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 14-6 in Sabathia’s last 20 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 58-27 in Sabathia’s last 85 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Red Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 16-5 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 37-14 in their last 51 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 21-8 in their last 29 games following an off day.
- Red Sox are 38-15 in their last 53 home games.
- Red Sox are 36-15 in their last 51 overall.
- Red Sox are 36-15 in their last 51 games on grass.
- Red Sox are 43-18 in their last 61 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 39-19 in their last 58 games following a loss.
- Red Sox are 5-1 in Johnson’s last 6 home starts.
- Red Sox are 9-2 in Johnson’s last 11 starts.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Johnson’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 8-2 in Johnson’s last 10 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 9-2-1 in Yankees last 12 Thursday games.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Over is 9-3-3 in Yankees last 15 on grass.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 14-5 in Yankees last 19 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 19-7 in Yankees last 26 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 18-7-2 in Yankees last 27 road games.
- Under is 5-2-2 in Yankees last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0 in Sabathia’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Sabathia’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sabathia’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Sabathia’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 20-6-3 in Sabathia’s last 29 road starts.
- Under is 9-3 in Sabathia’s last 12 Thursday starts.
- Under is 36-13-2 in Sabathia’s last 51 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 22-8-3 in Sabathia’s last 33 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 26-10-2 in Sabathia’s last 38 starts on grass.
- Under is 39-16-3 in Sabathia’s last 58 starts overall.
- Under is 19-9-2 in Sabathia’s last 30 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Red Sox last 9 games following an off day.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 15-5-1 in Red Sox last 21 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Red Sox last 26 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 Thursday games.
- Under is 9-4 in Red Sox last 13 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Johnson’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnson’s last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Johnson’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Johnson’s last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sabathia’s last 4 road starts vs. Red Sox.
- Under is 13-2-1 in Sabathia’s last 16 starts vs. Red Sox.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Sabathia’s last 7 starts vs. Red Sox.
- Yankees are 4-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 road starts vs. Red Sox.
- Yankees are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Boston.
