NY Yankees (82-47) at Baltimore (37-93)
When: Sunday, August 26th 2018
Where: Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: New York -270/8.5
Everyone who follows Major League Baseball has pretty much conceded the American League East to the Boston Red Sox, but the New York Yankees are saying: Not so fast. The Bronx Bombers will go for the four-game sweep of the lowly Baltimore Orioles on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. New York has outscored the O’s 22-9 en route to taking the first three and the Yanks received a strong outing from Sonny Gray in the victory – something Yankees’ fans wish would come more often from the veteran righty. Boston’s lead over New York is down to seven games and the Yankees schedule is very favorable this week. After Sunday’s game against the 93-loss Orioles, New York will host the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers in their seven-game homestand starting Monday. Baltimore dropped 56 games under .500 with Saturday’s losses and is in the midst of a seven-game losing streak that saw it surrender an average of seven runs. The Orioles throw Dylan Bundy while the Yankees go with the struggling Luis Severino.
Pitchers: Yankees – Luis Severino (16-6, 3.28 ERA) | Orioles – Dylan Bundy (7-12, 5.31)
Severino looks to get back on track against a weak opponent like Baltimore. He is coming off one of his better outings since the beginning of July, holding the Toronto Blue Jays to two runs and six hits in five innings on August 18th, and will be getting a few extra days rest. Severino was on a Cy Young-type pace through July 1st, with an ERA of 1.98, but is 3-4 with a 7.02 ERA and a .341 opponent’s batting average since. He is facing Baltimore for the first time this season and went 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA in four starts against them in 2017.
Bundy has been horrible over his last three starts, allowing 22 runs – 21 earned – and 29 hits in just 14.1 innings against Boston, the New York Mets, and Toronto. Bundy surrendered six home runs in that span as well and leads the majors with 33 dingers allowed. He give up one of those homers to the Yankees back on July 11th and took the loss while allowing five runs on five hits and four walks in four innings.
This line is way too high even laying the -1.5, so let’s look at the total. You have the red-hot hitting Yankees taking on a pitcher who shouldn’t be on anyone’s rotation. Then you have Severino, who is still not looked himself lately, giving the O’s a chance to score a few in this one. I can see New York getting seven runs alone, so I’ll put my money on the over.
Pick: OVER 9 +110
BETTING TRENDS:
- Yankees are 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 15-3 in Severino’s last 18 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 Sunday starts.
- Yankees are 11-3 in Severino’s last 14 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 38-13 in Severino’s last 51 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 8-3 in Severino’s last 11 road starts.
- Yankees are 38-15 in Severino’s last 53 starts.
- Orioles are 7-1 in Bundy’s last 8 Sunday starts.
- Orioles are 4-1 in Bundy’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Orioles are 2-5 in Bundy’s last 7 home starts.
- Orioles are 3-11 in Bundy’s last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Orioles are 1-4 in Bundy’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Orioles are 3-15 in Bundy’s last 18 starts vs. American League East.
- Orioles are 1-5 in Bundy’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Orioles are 0-4 in Bundy’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Orioles are 0-4 in Bundy’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Orioles are 0-4 in Bundy’s last 4 starts.
- Over is 8-1 in Severino’s last 9 starts overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 road starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 19-7-1 in Severino’s last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Bundy’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Bundy’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Bundy’s last 5 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Bundy’s last 6 Sunday starts.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Bundy’s last 7 starts overall.
- Over is 12-3-2 in Bundy’s last 17 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 10-3-1 in Bundy’s last 14 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Bundy’s last 5 starts on grass.
