NY Yankees (0-0) at Houston (0-0)
When: Friday, October 13th 2017
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: FOX Sports 1
Opening Odds: Houston -175/8
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Just one week ago, it appeared the Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians would be playing in the American League Championship Series, but the New York Yankees staged an epic comeback over the AL-best Indians and how have a ton of momentum coming into Friday night’s Game 1 in Houston. The Yankees were down 2-0 in the series before rallying for three straight victories, backed by strong starting pitching and timely hitting. They are now 4-0 this postseason when facing elimination, including the Wild Card win over Minnesota. New York’s hero in the Game 5 victory over Cleveland in the ALDS turned out to be shortstop Didi Gregorius, who homered twice off probable AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber and went 3-for-4 in the clinching game after going 1-for-13 in the first four games of the series. The Yankees (241) were the only team in the AL to hit more home runs in the regular season than the Astros (238), who have been waiting around since taking care of the Boston Red Sox in four games in their ALDS on Monday and are probably ecstatic to hold homefield over New York. Houston has two aces – Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander – and one of the most feared lineups in the league ready to take on the Yankees. Jose Altuve went 8-for-15 with three homers, five runs scored and four RBIs against Boston in the ALDS. The Astros took five of the seven meetings during the regular season, including two of three at home. New York would love to see slugger Aaron Judge get back on track – he was 1-for-20 in the ALDS and set a postseason record with 16 strikeouts in the series.
Pitchers: Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 0.00 ERA) | Astros – Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 1.59)
Sonny Gray was scheduled to start Game 1, but manager Joe Girardi has decided to go with Masahiro Tanaka after putting together the best start for New York in the ALDS. In Game 3, Tanaka scattered three hits and struck out seven without allowing a run to keep New York in the series. Tanaka is currently on a 14-inning scoreless streak going back to the regular season and boasts 22 strikeouts in that span. He suffered through his worst start of the season against Houston way back on May 14th, when he was roughed up for eight runs and seven hits – four homers – in just over an inning of work.
Dallas Keuchel will start Game 1 after Justin Verlander was used for four innings of relief in the clinching game of the ALDS in Boston. Keuchel started Game 2 of the ALDS and cruised through 5.2 innings, striking out seven while allowing one run, to make it four starts in a row that he’s allowed two or fewer runs going back to the regular season. Keuchel is 5-2 with a 1.24 ERA in seven career starts against New York, including six scoreless innings in the 2015 wild card game at Yankee Stadium.
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Don’t discount the Yankees in this series just because they’re a Wild Card team. They have a lot of momentum right now and Tanaka has been surprisingly good lately. I like Houston in the series, but I’ll take the Yankees to steal Game 1.
Pick: Yankees +145
BETTING TRENDS:
- Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 9-3 in their last 12 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 23-8 in their last 31 games on grass.
- Yankees are 20-8 in their last 28 overall.
- Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 Friday games.
- Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games.
- Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 League Championship games.
- Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 League Championship road games.
- Yankees are 2-5 in Gray’s last 7 road starts.
- Yankees are 1-4 in Gray’s last 5 starts.
- Yankees are 0-4 in Gray’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 0-4 in Gray’s last 4 starts on grass.
- Astros are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games.
- Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 League Championship home games.
- Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 League Championship games.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 18-6 in their last 24 games following a win.
- Astros are 25-9 in their last 34 overall.
- Astros are 25-9 in their last 34 games on grass.
- Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 playoff home games.
- Astros are 81-38 in their last 119 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 42-20 in their last 62 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 35-17 in their last 52 during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 5-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Astros are 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 21-6 in Keuchel’s last 27 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 16-5 in Keuchel’s last 21 Friday starts.
- Astros are 6-2 in Keuchel’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 19-7 in Keuchel’s last 26 starts.
- Astros are 16-6 in Keuchel’s last 22 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 36-16 in Keuchel’s last 52 home starts.
- Astros are 59-28 in Keuchel’s last 87 starts on grass.
- Astros are 25-12 in Keuchel’s last 37 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 Friday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 12-5-3 in Yankees last 20 playoff road games.
- Under is 11-5-2 in Yankees last 18 League Championship road games.
- Under is 6-1 in Gray’s last 7 road starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Gray’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games following a win.
- Over is 7-1 in Astros last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 playoff games.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 League Championship games.
- Over is 11-3 in Astros last 14 games following an off day.
- Under is 16-5-2 in Astros last 23 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 19-6-1 in Astros last 26 vs. American League East.
- Over is 9-3 in Astros last 12 on grass.
- Under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 Friday games.
- Under is 9-3 in Astros last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 9-3 in Astros last 12 overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 playoff home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Keuchel’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 Friday starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 6-2 in Keuchel’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 home starts.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Keuchel’s last 8 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 9-4 in Keuchel’s last 13 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Astros are 5-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts vs. Yankees.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
- Under is 5-2 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts vs. Yankees.
- Yankees are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.
