Wisconsin (10-3) vs Oregon (11-2)
When: Wednesday, January 1st, 2020
Where: Rose Bowl,
Pasadena, CA
Time: 5:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Wisconsin -3/49.5
There are almost 40 bowl games every season, but the one I look forward to the most is the “Granddaddy of them all” – the Rose Bowl. This game was first played in 1902 and the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Oregon Ducks in this year’s version. It will be almost eight years to the day when Oregon won a 45-38 slugfest against Wisconsin. This will be the Badgers’ 18th straight bowl game and they’ve won five in a row, while Oregon is making their eighth trip to the Rose Bowl and first since 2015. After an uncharacteristic eight wins last year, Wisconsin entered 2019 with higher expectations and raced out to a 6-0 start. With a trip to Ohio St on deck, Wisconsin lost at Illinois in a game they led by double-digits late in the third quarter. The Badgers were then blown out by the Buckeyes before finishing the regular season with four straight victories. They led Ohio State 21-7 at halftime in the Big Ten Championship Game, but were shutout in the second half. Oregon also had high expectations and were very close to competing for a CFP spot. The Ducks’ season started with a last second loss to Auburn, but won their next 9 games by an avg of 26 pts. Oregon then got upset by Arizona State before beating rival Oregon State, then demolishing Utah’s dreams in the Pac-12 title Game.
The Badgers are led offensively by junior running back Jonathan Taylor, who ranks sixth all-time with 6,080 career rushing yards and could be playing his final college game as he wrestles with the decision to turn pro. He is 91 yards away from joining former Iowa State great Troy Davis as the only players in FBS history to run for 2,000 yards in consecutive seasons. Wisconsin ranks 95th in the country in pass yards (201.1), but junior quarterback Jack Coan (2,541 passing yards, 17 TDs, four interceptions) is very efficient and boasts the third-best passer rating in the Big Ten (156.11) and is ranked eighth in FBS in completion percentage (70.1). Junior wideout Quintez Cephus (52 catches, 842 yards, six TDs) caught 12 passes for 236 yards in the final two games against Minnesota and Ohio State. The Badgers always have a solid defense and rank eighth overall this season (295.2) including ninth against the run (104.0).
Oregon’s Justin Herbert decided to come back after his junior season and will be playing his final college game as the nation’s active leader with 95 career touchdown passes – the sixth-best mark in Pac-12 history. Oregon averages 35.9 points a game with help from sophomore running back CJ Verdell (1,171 yards rushing), who exploded for 208 yards and three TDs on 18 carries versus a very good Utah defense in the conference championship game. Herbert’s top target is junior wideout Johnny Johnson III (55 catches, 818 yards, seven TDs), who caught six passes for 87 yards against the Utes. Oregon is very good at stopping the run (108.3), but are vulnerable through the air (222.8).
This should be a pretty good game, but I think Wisconsin starts to overpower Oregon in the second half. The Badgers are a better overall team with one of the best running backs in NCAA history.
Pick: Wisconsin -3 (Jay Cooper’s Free Bowl Picks)
Betting Trends:
Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Badgers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
Badgers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Badgers are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Badgers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Ducks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Ducks are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games on grass.
Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Ducks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.
Ducks are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win.
Ducks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Ducks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 4-0 in Badgers last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Badgers last 4 neutral site games.
Over is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games on grass.
Over is 14-4 in Badgers last 18 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Badgers last 5 bowl games.
Under is 6-2-1 in Badgers last 9 games in January.
Under is 3-1-1 in Badgers last 5 Bowl games.
Under is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 vs. Pac-12.
Over is 19-9-1 in Badgers last 29 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Ducks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 games following a straight up win.
Under is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 non-conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 vs. Big Ten.
Under is 6-2 in Ducks last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 games overall.
Under is 7-3 in Ducks last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Ducks last 10 games on grass.
Under is 9-4 in Ducks last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
