Southern California (24-9) vs Providence (20-12)
When: Wednesday, March 15th 2017
Where: University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, OH
Time: 9:10 ET | TV: truTV
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The Providence Friars meet the USC Trojans for the second straight season in the NCAA Tournament on Wednesday night in Dayton, Ohio. The winner will get No. 6 SMU in Tulsa, Oklahoma on Friday. Tip-off is at 9:10 ET on truTV. Providence edged the Trojans 70-69 in a first-round game last season on Rodney Bullock’s basket with 1.5 seconds remaining.
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The Friars (20-12 SU and ATS) come out of the Big East as one of the most profitable teams in college basketball against the spread. They’re second in the conference in defense (66.6 points/game), which masks some of their problems getting the ball in the hoop. Providence ranks No. 285 out of the 351 Division I teams in field-goal attempts and No. 248 in scoring at 70.3 points per game. The top player on the Friars, junior guard Jalen Linsdey, is 46.1% from downtown this year on 6.2 attempts per 40 minutes.
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USC (24-9 SU, 16-16 ATS) was in the AP rankings early in the season before conference play, but barely squeaked into March Madness after a late-season surge. The Trojans are more proficient on offense than Providence, ranking No. 56 overall at 78.7 points per game, however, USC also played a softer schedule in the Pac-12. Junior guard Elijah Stewart averages 12.4 points per game and a team-high 69 3-pointers after scoring 17 against UCLA in the Pac-12 quarterfinals.
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I like this balanced USC team coming out of a conference in which they had to play UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon. Yes, they played some terrible teams at the bottom of the Pac-12, but they also did well in their non-conference slate. This should be a very good game, but I’ll take the Trojans to advance.
Pick: USC -2.5
ATS TRENDS
| Southern California |
- Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Wednesday games.
- Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
- Trojans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Trojans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Trojans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
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| Providence |
- Friars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.
- Friars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Friars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog.
- Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Friars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- Friars are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Friars are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Friars are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.
- Friars are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog.
- Friars are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
- Friars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
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OU TRENDS
| Southern California |
- Under is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 Wednesday games.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Trojans last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
- Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 non-conference games.
- Over is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 vs. Big East.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Trojans last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 27-11-1 in Trojans last 39 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
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| Providence |
- Over is 4-0-1 in Friars last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 4-0 in Friars last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Friars last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
- Under is 16-5 in Friars last 21 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
- Under is 12-4-1 in Friars last 17 games as an underdog.
- Over is 11-4 in Friars last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Under is 20-8 in Friars last 28 neutral site games as an underdog.
- Under is 17-8-1 in Friars last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 37-18 in Friars last 55 neutral site games.
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HEAD TO HEAD
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