Minnesota (40-36) at Boston (43-35)
When: Thursday, June 29th 2017
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Boston -206/9.5
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The Boston Red Sox will look for a winning record as they wrap-up their seven-game homestand on Thursday night against the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park. Boston fell to 3-3 on the homestand after last night’s 4-1 setback to the Twins and will play their next ten games leading up to the All-Star Break on the road. Twins closer Brandon Kintzler recorded his 21st save on Wednesday, tying Boston’s Craig Kimbrel for the American League lead and moving the Twins within a half-game of Cleveland in the AL Central standings. Joe Mauer recorded a pair of hits on Wednesday and is 6-for-18 against Boston this season. Kyle Gibson, who owns a 1-1 record and 2.61 ERA in three career starts against the Red Sox, will take on David Price on Thursday. Boston fell into a first-place tie with the New York Yankees last night and will get their rivals at home right after the All-Star Break. Boston second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who is 5-for-10 in the series, matched his own franchise-record of 98 straight games without committing an error. Mookie Betts collected his second multi-hit effort in Wednesday’s loss to the Twins and is 5-for-12 in the series with two runs scored.
Pitchers: Twins – Kyle Gibson (4-5, 6.23 ERA) | Red Sox – David Price (2-2, 4.76)
Gibson’s last two starts have come against the Indians and he lasted only 4.2 innings last time out, giving up one run on four hits and four walks. He allowed three runs over six innings in his previous outing and is struggling with his control, walking at least three in seven of his last nine starts. Pedroia is hitless in nine at-bats against Gibson.
Price has a pretty good track-record against the Twins over the years, posting a 9-3 record and 2.43 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) against them overall and a 4-0 mark with a 1.16 ERA over four starts in 2015. He recorded his third quality start by allowing three runs – two earned – over six innings in a loss to the Los Angeles Angels, but had to leave early due to a cracked nail on the middle finger of his left hand. It was the first start in which Price did not surrender a homer after allowing 30 last year.
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Price should have a solid outing against the light-hitting Twins lineup, while the Red Sox will probably tag Gibson in their final home game until mid-July. I’m not worried about laying a run and a half in this one.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 -110
W/L TRENDS
| Minnesota |
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Twins are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 22-8 in their last 30 road games.
- Twins are 13-5 in their last 18 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Twins are 21-48 in their last 69 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 4-0 in Gibsons last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Twins are 5-0 in Gibsons last 5 road starts.
- Twins are 4-1 in Gibsons last 5 starts.
- Twins are 4-1 in Gibsons last 5 starts on grass.
- Twins are 4-1 in Gibsons last 5 Thursday starts.
- Twins are 16-33 in Gibsons last 49 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 8-18 in Gibsons last 26 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 1-6 in Gibsons last 7 starts during game 4 of a series.
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| Boston |
- Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss.
- Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 12-5 in their last 17 home games.
- Red Sox are 13-6 in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Red Sox are 8-2 in Prices last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Prices last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 11-4 in Prices last 15 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Red Sox are 5-2 in Prices last 7 home starts.
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OU TRENDS
| Minnesota |
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Twins last 6 Thursday games.
- Under is 7-0 in Twins last 7 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Twins last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Twins last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-1 in Twins last 8 on grass.
- Under is 7-1 in Twins last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-2 in Twins last 8 vs. American League East.
- Under is 20-7-1 in Twins last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Twins last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-0 in Gibsons last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 11-3 in Gibsons last 14 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 17-6-2 in Gibsons last 25 starts overall.
- Over is 24-9-1 in Gibsons last 34 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 15-6-2 in Gibsons last 23 starts on grass.
- Over is 10-4-1 in Gibsons last 15 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
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| Boston |
- Under is 9-2-1 in Red Sox last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 home games.
- Under is 8-2-2 in Red Sox last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-3-2 in Red Sox last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 13-6 in Red Sox last 19 Thursday games.
- Over is 11-0 in Prices last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 7-1 in Prices last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2-1 in Prices last 12 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Prices last 8 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-2 in Prices last 8 starts overall.
- Over is 12-5 in Prices last 17 starts with 4 days of rest.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Over is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings.
- Twins are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
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