Tennessee (5-5) at Houston (7-3)
When: Monday, November 26th 2018
Where: NRG Stadium,
Houston, Texas
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Houston -4.5/42.5
The Houston Texans have a chance to put a stranglehold on the AFC South Division when they host the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football to cap off Week 12 of the NFL schedule. Houston has won seven consecutive games after starting the season 0-3 and have a two-game lead on Tennessee and Indianapolis ahead of Week 12. The Titans had back-to-back wins over Dallas and New England to stay in the race, but were humiliated last week 38-10 in Indianapolis and quarterback Marcus Mariota left the contest with a stinger, but practiced fully on Friday and is set to go Monday. This will be Tennessee’s second Monday night game this season – the first was a 28-14 at Dallas to make them a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven contests on Mondays. Houston is coming off consecutive two-point victories at Washington and Denver, giving the team four victories by three points or fewer during its winning streak. These two teams met back in week two when the Texans dropped a 20-17 in Nashville, but Tennessee has won three of the last four matchups. The one loss was last season in Houston where the Texans crushed the Titans 57-14 – the largest margin of victory in the franchise’s history. The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Houston, and the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five. Tennessee is on a 7-2 SU run against the division in the last nine games dating back to last season.
Mariota came alive in the victories over Dallas and New England, but last week’s injury cost him a chance at winning his third straight game. The former Oregon quarterback had a rushing and throwing touchdown in the Week 2 matchup against Houston. Running back Derrick Henry, who was used out of the wildcat in the first meeting, has been splitting carries this season with Dion Lewis, and the two have a combined 824 yards and five touchdowns. Corey Davis is the leading receiver with 45 receptions and 606 yards, but has only found the end zone twice this season. Tennessee did have the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense until the Colts took care of that last week.
Deshaun Watson scorched the Titans last season in his third career start, throwing for four touchdowns and rushing for another as Houston set a franchise record for points in the 57-14 rout. During the seven game winning streak, Houston has scored more than 23 points just twice and Watson hasn’t thrown for more than 239 yards in his last five starts. Superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins has at least one touchdown reception in five straight games and eight overall to lead the team. Running back Lamar Miller is helping take pressure off Watson by having a consistent run of at least 86 yards rushing in three of the last four games. The Texans rank in the top ten defensively overall, versus the pass, the run, and scoring (20.5 points).
Mariota and the Tennessee defense has a knack for pulling off upsets against good teams, especially in prime time. They did already against Dallas on a Monday night, and are on a 7-0 ATS run on Mondays as well. I’ll take the points in a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Titans +4
Betting Trends:
- Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
- Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC South.
- Titans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
- Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Titans are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Titans are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Titans are 19-43-4 ATS in their last 66 vs. AFC.
- Titans are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games in November.
- Titans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 12.
- Titans are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf.
- Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC South.
- Texans are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
- Texans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
- Texans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Texans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.
- Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Titans last 7 vs. AFC.
- Under is 6-0 in Titans last 6 vs. AFC South.
- Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-2 in Titans last 9 games in Week 12.
- Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games in Week 12.
- Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 Monday games.
- Under is 7-2 in Texans last 9 vs. AFC.
- Under is 6-2 in Texans last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 games in November.
- Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 vs. AFC South.
- Under is 15-6 in Texans last 21 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 7-3 in Texans last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 11-5 in Texans last 16 games overall.
- Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.
- Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
- Titans are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
- Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Houston.
