Texas Tech (3-2) at TCU (3-2)
When: Thursday, October 11th 2018
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium,
Fort Worth, Texas
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: TCU -10.5/62.5
The TCU Horned Frogs breezed through their first two opponents this season and were ranked 14th in the country until a couple of ranked teams – Ohio State and Texas – gave TCU back-to-back losses. The Horned Frogs didn’t exactly rebound after those setbacks as they needed a field goal with 37 seconds remaining to get past a pesky Iowa State team and avoid a three-game skid. The schedule doesn’t get any easier with a solid Texas Tech team on deck on short rest. Texas Tech won three straight games in September before coming up short to No. 6 West Virginia in a 42-34 defeat to close out the month. The Red Raiders played the second half of that contest without quarterback Alan Bowman (partially collapsed lung), who is expected to play Thursday. TCU has won three of the last four meetings, including a 27-3 rout last season and will be seeking to win their ninth straight home game overall. The Red Raiders have the No. 1 offense in the country (589.4), and second-ranked passing attack, but will be going up against a TCU defense that ranks 12th overall in yards allowed (303.6).
The Red Raiders also rank eighth in scoring offense (48.4 points) behind Bowman entering Thursday’s matchup. The freshman quarterback threw for 605 yards and five touchdowns against Houston on September 15th and is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 1,680 yards with 11 TDs and three interceptions. Oddly enough, the pass-happy offense has 18 rushing touchdowns, including seven from leading rusher Ta’Zhawn Henry, while Jett Duffey – who relieved Bowman at quarterback last week – is averaging 8.0 yards per carry on 21 attempts. Wide receiver Antoine Wesley leads the Big 12 with 124.2 receiving yards per game. Texas Tech will give up a lot of yards through the air, as they rank 122nd of 130 FBS teams in that category.
TCU, which averages 414 yards a game, failed to reach 300 against Iowa State and also committed three turnovers. The difference in the game was their ability to convert on third and fourth downs, going 13-of-22, combined with a strong defensive effort. Signal caller Shawn Robinson is expected to play after he suffered a shoulder injury late in the Cyclones game, although he has surpassed 200 yards passing only once in five games this season. Darius Anderson (316 yards) still leads the team in rushing, but has just 57 yards on 24 carries over his last two games.
Texas Tech is starting to play like the team I thought they would from the get-go. The defense is still a problem in Lubbock, but probably will always be the case. The TCU offense has not impressed me and I think the Red Raiders can put up a good showing here on the road and keep it close.
Pick: Texas Tech +7
Betting Trends:
- Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
- Red Raiders are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Red Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
- Red Raiders are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.
- Red Raiders are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Horned Frogs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a bye week.
- Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
- Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Horned Frogs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games.
- Horned Frogs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
- Horned Frogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Over is 5-1 in Red Raiders last 6 games overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Red Raiders last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Raiders last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Raiders last 5 conference games.
- Over is 20-8 in Red Raiders last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 21-10 in Red Raiders last 31 games in October.
- Over is 21-10 in Red Raiders last 31 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 games following a bye week.
- Under is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 home games.
- Under is 7-2 in Horned Frogs last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 21-6 in Horned Frogs last 27 conference games.
- Under is 16-5 in Horned Frogs last 21 games in October.
- Under is 9-3 in Horned Frogs last 12 Thursday games.
- Under is 6-2 in Horned Frogs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 11-4 in Horned Frogs last 15 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Horned Frogs last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Horned Frogs last 13 games on grass.
