San Antonio (2-2) at Denver (2-2)
When: Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019
Where: Pepsi Center,
Denver, Colorado
Time: 9:30 ET | TV: NBA TV
Opening Odds: Denver -5.5/212.5
The Western Conference first round series between the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets is back even after each team won a game on the road after it looked like the Spurs were gaining control. San Antonio led by 12 points after one quarter in Game 3, but the Nuggets completely dominated after that, outscoring the Spurs 95-69 the rest of the way. Game 5 shifts back to Pepsi Center in Denver on Tuesday night. All-Star center Nikola Jokic just missed a triple-double with 29 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists in Game 4 and point guard Jamal Murray continued to be a big part of Denver’s success with 24 points and six assists. Murray is averaging 24 points on 16-of-31 shooting in Denver’s Game 2 and 4 victories, while averaging 11.5 on 10-of-29 shooting in the two losses. The Spurs were clearly frustrated with their play including guard DeMar DeRozan who was ejected in the fourth quarter and fined $25,000 for “recklessly throwing the basketball” in the direction of official Scott Foster. Game 6 will be Thursday back in San Antonio.
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Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge led the Spurs with 24 points and nine rebounds while DeRozan scored 19 points before his ejection, but the rest of the team had off nights. Point guard Derrick White scored just eight points on 3-of-8 shooting after averaging 23 points on 29-of-42 over the first three games and Rudy Gay (two points on 0-of-7 shooting) and Marco Belinelli (three points, 1-of-5) also contributed little. Gay is just 4-of-24 from the floor over the last three games.
With guard Will Barton struggling to 1-of-13 shooting over the first three games, Denver coach Michael Malone inserted forward Torrey Craig into the lineup and he responded with 18 points, eight rebounds, and five made 3-pointers. Barton scored 12 points off the bench and hit all three of his 3-point attempts. San Antonio outshot Denver 46.8 to 44.9 percent, but the Nuggets made up the difference by draining 15-of-31 from beyond the arc and 22-of-24 from the foul line.
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Denver has been terrific all year at home and I think have gained control of this series after a big road win Sunday. The Spurs actually have the second-worst road record of any playoff team coming into this postseason (16-25). Look for Jokic to have another huge game and for the Nuggets to cruise in this one.
Pick: Nuggets -5.5
Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Spurs are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference.
Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest.
Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Nuggets are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Southwest.
Nuggets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Nuggets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
Under is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 9-3-1 in Spurs last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Over is 9-3 in Spurs last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 road games.
Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 27-11-1 in Spurs last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 7-3 in Spurs last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 16-7 in Spurs last 23 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 22-10 in Spurs last 32 vs. NBA Northwest.
Under is 13-6 in Spurs last 19 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 17-8 in Spurs last 25 overall.
Under is 35-17 in Spurs last 52 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 11-3 in Nuggets last 14 home games.
Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 13-4 in Nuggets last 17 games following a straight up win.
Over is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 overall.
Over is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 7-3 in Nuggets last 10 vs. NBA Southwest.
Spurs are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Denver.
