New Orleans (10-1) at Dallas (6-5)
When: Thursday, November 29th 2018
Where: AT&T Stadium,
Arlington, Texas
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New Orleans -7/51.5
The New Orleans Saints opened the season with a rare home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then squeaked by the Cleveland Browns 21-18, failing to cover the spread in both contests. Since then, it’s been a whole different story. Not only have the Saints won the next 9 games, they have covered the spread in each one, winning by double-digits in the last five. New Orleans is now tied with the Los Angeles Rams for the best record in the NFL – holding the tiebreaker – and could wrap-up the NFC South if things play out this weekend. New Orleans travels to Jerry’s World to take on the Dallas Cowboys, who are currently favored to win the NFL East, despite a 6-5 record. The Cowboys are tied atop the division with Washington, but the Redskins has lost starting quarterback Alex Smith for the season. Philadelphia could have a say in the matter though, as they sit one game back. Dallas has won three straight thanks to the plan of giving the ball to their best player – Ezekiel Elliott. The former Ohio State Buckeye leads the NFL with 1,074 rushing yards and has 531 scrimmage yards (394 rushing, 137 receiving) and four touchdowns during the winning streak, including 143 (121 rushing, 22 receiving) in Dallas’ 31-23 win over Washington on Thanksgiving Day. Stopping the Saints’ offense, however, will be the key. New Orleans continued their offensive onslaught last Thursday, as Drew Brees tossed four touchdown passes in a 31-17 win over Atlanta and has 11 scoring passes against one interception in his last four meetings with the Cowboys. New Orleans has won nine of the past 11 meetings with Dallas, but they haven’t played since 2015 and the Saints haven’t seen Elliott or quarterback Dak Prescott. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
Running back Alvin Kamara continues his strong season with 575 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns (six rushing, three receiving) in his past six games, while fellow running mate Mark Ingram has found the end zone three times in his last three games. Wideout Michael Thomas is Brees’ favorite target with an NFL second-best 86 receptions. The defense hasn’t been too shabby either and bring their top-ranked rushing defense (73.2 yards) to Dallas along with four forced turnovers and six sacks against the Falcons. They also held Falcons running backs Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith to just six rushing yards on 10 carries last week. The Saints are tied for the league low in turnovers with just nine, one fewer than the Cowboys.
Prescott and new favorite weapon Amari Cooper will get their chances with the Saints’ 30th-ranked pass defense after the pair hooked up for two long touchdown passes against the Redskins on Thanksgiving. Prescott has run for a touchdown in each of his last three games while Cooper joined Kansas City wideout Tyreek Hill in recording his second 180-yard, two-touchdown performance in the last two seasons. Cooper has seen eight-plus targets in three of four games since being acquired from Oakland, making Dallas a little more dynamic offensively. Dallas has a strong defense, ranking seventh overall (331.1 yards) and fourth against the run (93.6). Defensive end Demarcus Lawrence has three of his team-leading 8.5 sacks in the last four games.
Dallas is playing better, but they are no match for the Saints offense right now. Until New Orleans shows signs of slowing down, I’m not betting against them. The Cowboys have been running the ball well, but we know the Saints defense is the best in the league right now at stopping the run. I’ll lay the points on the road.
Pick: Saints -7.5
Betting Trends:
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
- Saints are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Saints are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Saints are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
- Saints are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up win.
- Saints are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.
- Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 vs. NFC.
- Saints are 41-17-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Cowboys are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win.
- Cowboys are 5-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 13.
- Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
- Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Saints last 7 Thursday games.
- Under is 8-3 in Saints last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 12-5 in Saints last 17 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 home games.
- Under is 9-1 in Cowboys last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in November.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Cowboys last 11 vs. NFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 Thursday games.
- Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 14-6 in Cowboys last 20 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas.
- Underdog is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
