Royals vs Tigers Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [9/5/17]

Kansas City (68-68) at Detroit (58-79)
When: Tuesday, September 5th 2017
Where: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: FSN Kansas City, FSN Detroit
Opening Odds: Kansas City -170/9.5

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The Kansas City Royals look to continue their climb up the AL Wild Card standings when they visit the Detroit Tigers for the second game of a three-game set on Tuesday night. Kansas City is chasing down the Minnesota Twins for the second AL wild card and took two of three from them over the weekend before slugging past Detroit 7-6 in Monday’s series opener. The Royals, who host the Twins in a four-game series beginning Thursday, are winners of four of their last six and are finally getting the offense going with an average of 4.7 runs in the last six games after getting shut out in four straight. Royals’ closer Kelvin Herrera (forearm strain) was unavailable on Monday and is day-to-day. The Tigers’ rally fell short in the ninth inning on Monday and are losers of five in a row and made no secret of the fact that they are in for a long rebuilding process by trading away Justin Verlander and Justin Upton last week. A couple of struggling pitchers will take the mound Tuesday as Kansas City goes with lefty Jason Vargas, while the Tigers counter with Anibal Sanchez.

Pitchers: Royals – Jason Vargas (14-9, 3.87 ERA) | Tigers – Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 6.95)

Vargas has dropped his last three starts and was blasted for five runs on seven hits over six innings by the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday. Vargas was terrific in the first half of the season, but has fallen apart since. He was 12-3 with a 2.62 ERA before the All-Star Break, but is just 2-6 with a 6.80 ERA in nine starts since. Vargas’ first start after the break came against Detroit on July 17th, and he was hit for six runs on seven hits and four walks in just 2.2 innings.

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Sanchez will make his first start since August 16th after spending a few weeks on the disabled list with hamstring tightness. In his three starts prior to landing on the DL, Sanchez allowed 17 runs on 23 hits – nine home runs – over 11.1 innings. He wasn’t much better in his last start against Kansas City on July 26th, when he surrendered four runs on nine hits and two walks over 3.2 innings.

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Vargas may be struggling, but he’s a much better option to bet than Sanchez. The Tigers have given-up on this season, while the Royals are still playing with hunger. I’ll take Kansas City on the runline here.

Pick: Royals -1.5 +120

TRENDS:

• Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Royals are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Royals are 3-8 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series.
• Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Royals are 13-3 in Vargas’ last 16 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Royals are 13-3 in Vargas’ last 16 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Royals are 4-1 in Vargas’ last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Royals are 13-4 in Vargas’ last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Royals are 6-2 in Vargas’ last 8 road starts.
• Royals are 10-4 in Vargas’ last 14 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Royals are 13-6 in Vargas’ last 19 starts vs. American League Central.
• Royals are 1-5 in Vargas’ last 6 starts.
• Royals are 1-5 in Vargas’ last 6 starts on grass.
• Royals are 0-4 in Vargas’ last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Royals are 0-4 in Vargas’ last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Tigers are 17-35 in their last 52 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Tigers are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Tigers are 7-19 in their last 26 vs. American League Central.
• Tigers are 7-22 in their last 29 overall.
• Tigers are 7-22 in their last 29 games on grass.
• Tigers are 3-11 in their last 14 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
• Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a loss.
• Tigers are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 Tuesday games.
• Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games.
• Tigers are 4-1 in Sanchez’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Tigers are 5-11 in Sanchez’s last 16 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Tigers are 5-12 in Sanchez’s last 17 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Tigers are 6-21 in Sanchez’s last 27 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Tigers are 2-7 in Sanchez’s last 9 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Tigers are 1-4 in Sanchez’s last 5 starts.
• Tigers are 1-4 in Sanchez’s last 5 starts on grass.

• Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 road games.
• Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
• Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 19-6-1 in Royals last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Over is 12-5-1 in Royals last 18 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 9-4-1 in Royals last 14 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 16-4-2 in Vargas’ last 22 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Under is 4-1 in Vargas’ last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-2 in Vargas’ last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 6-2 in Vargas’ last 8 starts on grass.
• Under is 6-2 in Vargas’ last 8 starts overall.
• Under is 15-5 in Vargas’ last 20 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Under is 12-4 in Vargas’ last 16 starts vs. American League Central.
• Under is 9-4 in Vargas’ last 13 starts with 5 days of rest.

• Over is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 13-4 in Tigers last 17 home games.
• Under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 overall.
• Under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 on grass.
• Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 11-5 in Tigers last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 7-1-1 in Sanchez’s last 9 starts vs. American League Central.
• Over is 13-2-2 in Sanchez’s last 17 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 12-2-2 in Sanchez’s last 16 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-2 in Sanchez’s last 8 Tuesday starts.
• Over is 41-15-6 in Sanchez’s last 62 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Over is 35-14-4 in Sanchez’s last 53 starts on grass.
• Over is 35-15-5 in Sanchez’s last 55 starts overall.
• Over is 17-8-3 in Sanchez’s last 28 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 31-15-6 in Sanchez’s last 52 home starts.

• Royals are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.
• Royals are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
• Over is 4-1 in Vargas’ last 5 starts vs. Tigers.
• Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.
• Under is 5-2 in Sanchez’s last 7 home starts vs. Royals.
• Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.
• Royals are 1-5 in Vargas’ last 6 starts vs. Tigers.

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