Cincinnati (50-56) at Atlanta (64-45)
When: Thursday, August 1st, 2019
Where: SunTrust Park,
Cumberland, GA
Time: 7:20 ET | TV: FS Ohio,
FS Southeast
Opening Odds: Atlanta -151/9.5
The Atlanta Braves are coming off a pivotal and successful six-game road trip, taking two of three each from both the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals to secure their grip on the National League East. They will now entertain the Cincinnati Reds for four games over the weekend before embarking on a seven-game trek that includes AL Central-leading Minnesota. The Braves averaged 7.8 runs a game in going 4-2 and saw their bullpen blow a 4-1 eighth-inning lead at Washington on Wednesday afternoon before prevailing 5-4 in extra innings. Atlanta bolstered their bullpen before the trade deadline on Wednesday by acquiring relievers Shane Greene from Detroit along with Mark Melancon from San Francisco. Atlanta relievers have issued 191 free passes this season (fifth-most in the majors) and own a 1.41 WHIP (21st), but still have a 6.5 game lead over the Nationals in the division. Former Red Adam Duvall went 2-for-5 with a homer and double Wednesday, and is batting .500 with four homers, six RBI and six runs scored in five games since being recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett. Cincinnati acquired starting pitcher Trevor Bauer from Cleveland as part of a three-team deal Tuesday and have won four of their last five. They took care of slumping Pittsburgh on Wednesday by winning 4-1 behind Nick Senzel’s 3-for-4 performance to boost his average to .404 over his last 14 games. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez homered for the 12th time this month, the most by a Reds player in July since Adam Dunn’s 12 in 2008.
Pitchers: Reds – Anthony DeSclafani (6-5, 4.01 ERA) | Braves – Max Fried (11-4, 4.21)
The Reds are just 1-3 in Anthony DeSclafani’s last four starts but it’s not his fault as the offense has failed to support him, scoring nine total runs in that span. DeSclafani ended July with a 1-1 record and 2.78 ERA while averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings with six walks allowed in 22.2 innings. He’s allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts including giving up one run on four hits with three walks and five strikeouts over five innings Saturday against Colorado. DeSclafani is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in four career starts against the Braves.
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
Atlanta has won seven of the last nine games Max Fried has started, but unlike DeSclafani, he’s been getting a ton of run support. The Braves scored 15 in a win at Philadelphia last week, but Fried gave up four earned runs on seven hits with six strikeouts over 5.1 innings. After a terrific start to the season, Fried now has a 5.11 ERA with a .307 opponents batting average in his last seven outings, but is 4-1 in that span. This will be his first career start against Cincinnati.
Atlanta might take this team a little lightly after a rough road trip against the two teams behind them in the NL East. The Reds are not dead yet and have won four of the last five meetings with Atlanta including two of three earlier this season. DeSclafani has the slight edge over Fried in this matchup. I’ll take a shot with the dog here.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Thursday. He is 99-72 +1528 units on the season!
Pick: Reds +141
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
BETTING TRENDS:
Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 Thursday games.
Reds are 4-9 in their last 13 road games.
Reds are 4-9 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
Reds are 5-2 in DeSclafani’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
Reds are 6-13 in DeSclafani’s last 19 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 1-4 in DeSclafani’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 0-4 in DeSclafani’s last 4 Thursday starts.
Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 9-3 in their last 12 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Braves are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Braves are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.
Braves are 35-16 in their last 51 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 5-11 in their last 16 Thursday games.
Braves are 5-0 in Fried’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
Braves are 7-1 in Fried’s last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
Braves are 6-1 in Fried’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 4-1 in Fried’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Braves are 7-2 in Fried’s last 9 starts.
Braves are 7-2 in Fried’s last 9 starts on grass.
Braves are 1-4 in Fried’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 8-2-1 in Reds last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 20-6 in Reds last 26 vs. National League East.
Under is 16-5 in Reds last 21 Thursday games.
Under is 23-8 in Reds last 31 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 19-7 in Reds last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 43-18-1 in Reds last 62 road games.
Under is 16-7-1 in Reds last 24 games following a win.
Under is 36-16-1 in Reds last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 15-7 in Reds last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 50-24-4 in Reds last 78 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-0-1 in DeSclafani’s last 4 starts on grass.
Under is 5-0-1 in DeSclafani’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 3-0-1 in DeSclafani’s last 4 starts overall.
Over is 8-2-1 in DeSclafani’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in DeSclafani’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 5-2-1 in DeSclafani’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 Thursday games.
Under is 5-0-1 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 home games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-2-1 in Braves last 11 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 3-1-1 in Braves last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Braves last 7 vs. National League Central.
Over is 5-0 in Fried’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-1-1 in Fried’s last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 6-1-2 in Fried’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-1 in Fried’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 4-1-2 in Fried’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-2-1 in Fried’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-2 in Fried’s last 9 home starts.
Over is 5-2 in Fried’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
Over is 7-3-2 in Fried’s last 12 starts on grass.
Over is 7-3-2 in Fried’s last 12 starts overall.
Reds are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
