Boston (55-45) at Seattle (49-51)
When: Monday, July 24th 2017
Where: Safeco Field, Seattle, WA
Time: 10:10 ET | TV: NESN, ROOT Northwest
Opening Odds: Seattle -132/8.5
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The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners will begin a three-game series on Monday night at Safeco Field with both clubs looking to improve on their playoff standings. Boston, which has dropped three of their last four, still hold a 2.5 game lead over the New York Yankees in the American League East. Boston could get some much needed third base help tonight as the club is expected to call-up rookie prospect Rafael Devers on Monday. Red Sox fans have watched its third basemen – led by the likes of Deven Marrero, Josh Rutledge and the recently released Pablo Sandoval – post a combined .228 batting average this season. Devers, who arrived at the Red Sox’s Triple-A affiliate less than two weeks ago from Double-A Portland, went 14-for-35 with two homers at Pawtucket. Boston is 1-2 on their current six-game road trek after losing a weekend series at the Los Angeles Angels. The Mariners, who have dropped four of six since beginning the second half with four straight wins, are 2.5 games behind Kansas City for the AL’s second wild-card spot after losing three of four to the Yankees over the weekend. Seattle scored just one run in each of the first two games against New York, but came back with ten in the final two contests. All-Star Nelson Cruz has a modest four-game hitting streak going, but has failed to homer since July 17th. The Mariners signed 2B Danny Espinosa on Sunday – three days after he was released by the Los Angeles Angels. He’s expected to provide some depth, but is only hitting .162 in 72 games this season.
Pitchers: Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez (4-2, 3.66 ERA) | Mariners – James Paxton (9-3, 3.05)
Eduardo Rodriguez struggled in his first start back from a stint on the disabled list, allowing three runs on six hits and four walks while striking out eight in 5.1 innings of a no decision last Monday against Toronto. He did not fare well in his three rehab outings with Pawtucket either, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Rodriguez was terrific in throwing six scoreless innings versus the Mariners on May 26th – his second-to-last start before getting injured – to improve to 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA in two starts against them.
James Paxton has been pretty solid all season with his ERA hovering around 3.00 and won his fourth straight start Wednesday at Houston. He allowed just one run and six hits while striking out seven over as many innings. Paxton has rebounded nicely from a rough five-outing stretch during which he went 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA, posting a 2.05 mark and 28 strikeouts during his winning streak. Paxton has given up one run on nine hits and two walks over a pair of eight-inning outings against the Red Sox, including a no-decision at home on August 1st of last year.
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I want to take the underdog in this one, but the stats tell me otherwise. Rodriguez has really struggled and doesn’t show any signs of turning it around. The Red Sox are hitting only .209 as a team in their last ten games and Seattle plays well at home. I’m going to lay the 145 on Paxton as the M’s will win the opener.
Pick: Mariners -145
W/L TRENDS
| Boston |
- Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 13-5 in their last 18 games following a loss.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Red Sox are 6-1 in Rodriguez’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Red Sox are 5-2 in Rodriguez’s last 7 starts vs. American League West.
- Red Sox are 7-3 in Rodriguez’s last 10 starts.
- Red Sox are 7-3 in Rodriguez’s last 10 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 11-5 in Rodriguez’s last 16 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in Rodriguez’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
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| Seattle |
- Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 Monday games.
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Mariners are 10-4 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 3-10 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Mariners are 3-12 in their last 15 home games.
- Mariners are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Mariners are 1-8 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts on grass.
- Mariners are 5-2 in Paxton’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
- Mariners are 7-15 in Paxton’s last 22 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 1-4 in Paxton’s last 5 Monday starts.
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OU TRENDS
| Boston |
- Under is 10-1-1 in Red Sox last 12 Monday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 8-3 in Red Sox last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Red Sox last 10 overall.
- Under is 7-3 in Red Sox last 10 on grass.
- Over is 9-4 in Red Sox last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rodriguez’s last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Rodriguez’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 11-3-1 in Rodriguez’s last 15 road starts.
- Under is 21-6 in Rodriguez’s last 27 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 19-6-1 in Rodriguez’s last 26 starts overall.
- Under is 24-8-1 in Rodriguez’s last 33 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Rodriguez’s last 7 Monday starts.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Rodriguez’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
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| Seattle |
- Under is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 8-1 in Mariners last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Mariners last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Mariners last 8 vs. American League East.
- Under is 7-3-2 in Mariners last 12 Monday games.
- Over is 45-20-3 in Mariners last 68 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 13-6-1 in Mariners last 20 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 home starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-4 in Paxton’s last 14 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Paxton’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Paxton’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Seattle.
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