Philadelphia (58-53) at Arizona (56-56)
When: Monday, August 5th, 2019
Where: Chase Field,
Phoenix, Arizona
Time: 9:40 ET | TV: FS Arizona,
NBCS Philadelphia
Opening Odds: Arizona -115/9.5
The potent Philadelphia Phillies lineup has been an inconsistent run-producing group this season and they are currently on the downswing as they head West for a seven-game road trip starting Monday night at the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Phillies have scored three or fewer runs 11 times since the All-Star Break, but are still clinging to the final wild card spot in the National League – tied with NL East-rival Washington. Philly fell to 4-5 in its last nine games after dropping two of three at home over the weekend to the Chicago White Sox after recently acquired Drew Smyly failed to give the team a quality start. The Diamondbacks have not played well of late either but are only 2.5 games behind the Phillies and Nationals with Milwaukee just ahead of them. Arizona was shutout by Washington on Friday but responded with 25 runs in winning the next two contests against Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. Adam Jones led the offensive attack in Sunday’s 7-5 victory with three hits and four RBI, while Ketel Marte also collected three hits and went 8-for-14 with two solo homers and three runs scored as the Diamondbacks won two of three at Philadelphia in June Third baseman Eduardo Escobar also had a big series at Citizen’s Bank Park, going 5-for-12 with two homers, six RBI and four runs scored.
Pitchers: Phillies – Vince Velasquez (3-6, 4.40 ERA) | Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly (7-11, 4.52)
Vince Velasquez will start on the mound three days after playing a couple of innings in left field against the White Sox and throwing out a runner at the plate and making a diving catch to end the 15th inning Friday. He’s also turned his pitching around lately, giving up just two runs and eight hits over his last two starts against Detroit and San Francisco. Velasquez is 1-2 with a 3.93 ERA in six career appearances (three starts) versus the Diamondbacks.
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
Merrill Kelly is coming off two of the worst starts anyone can have, allowing 14 runs and 15 hits over 8.1 innings of work in loses to a pair of the worst teams in the majors – Baltimore and Miami. He also allowed five home runs in that span to bring his season total to 21 and the Diamondbacks have lost his last six starts. Kelly was brilliant at Philadelphia on June 12th, limiting the Phillies to three hits over 7.2 scoreless innings.
Neither team is playing like a playoff contender right now, but I’ll give the edge to the Phillies based on how horrible Kelly has been in his last two starts. Look for the Phillies offense to break out this week away from home starting on Monday.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Monday. He is 102-73 +1728 units on the season after a 3-0 run!
Pick: Phillies -105
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
BETTING TRENDS:
Phillies are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss.
Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 11-4 in their last 15 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 24-50 in their last 74 Monday games.
Phillies are 7-19 in Velasquez’s last 26 starts with 4 days of rest.
Phillies are 5-14 in Velasquez’s last 19 road starts.
Phillies are 1-4 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts vs. National League West.
Phillies are 1-4 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 2-9 in Velasquez’s last 11 starts during game 1 of a series.
Phillies are 1-5 in Velasquez’s last 6 Monday starts.
Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Diamondbacks are 2-6 in their last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win.
Diamondbacks are 2-8 in Kelly’s last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Kelly’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Kelly’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Kelly’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Kelly’s last 6 starts.
Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Kelly’s last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 road games.
Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 6-0 in Phillies last 6 Monday games.
Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 12-4 in Phillies last 16 games following a loss.
Over is 8-3 in Phillies last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-4 in Phillies last 13 vs. National League West.
Under is 11-5 in Phillies last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 Monday starts.
Under is 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 10-3 in Velasquez’s last 13 starts on grass.
Under is 10-3 in Velasquez’s last 13 starts overall.
Under is 6-2 in Velasquez’s last 8 road starts.
Under is 6-2 in Velasquez’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 Monday games.
Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 5-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-2 in Diamondbacks last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 3-1-2 in Diamondbacks last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 6-2 in Diamondbacks last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-2 in Diamondbacks last 9 home games.
Over is 7-3 in Diamondbacks last 10 vs. National League East.
Under is 3-0-1 in Kelly’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0-1 in Kelly’s last 6 home starts.
Under is 4-1 in Kelly’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Kelly’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-3-1 in Kelly’s last 13 starts on grass.
Under is 6-2 in Kelly’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Kelly’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 9-4-1 in Kelly’s last 14 starts overall.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona.
Phillies are 4-12 in the last 16 meetings.
Phillies are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Arizona.
