New England (7-2) at Tennessee (4-4)
When: Sunday, November 11th 2018
Where: Nissan Stadium,
Nashville, Tennessee
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -6.5/46.5
The Tennessee Titans kept their playoff hopes alive with an impressive 28-14 victory at the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night, and will now seek revenge against the team who eliminated them from the postseason last year – the New England Patriots. The Titans are just 4-4 on the season, but they’re just a game and a half behind Houston in the weak AFC South after snapping their three-game losing streak on Monday. The team is 30th in the NFL in overall offense, but managed a season-high 28 in the win over the Cowboys Monday. Marcus Mariota has just five touchdown passes in seven starts this season – that translates to a touchdown pass once every 35.8 pass attempts. Tennessee is 2-1 ATS at home this season and 5-1 ATS in its last six overall at Nissan Stadium. New England is coming off a 31-17 home win on Sunday night against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers as a 5-point favorites and beat the Titans 35-14 as 13.5-point home chalk in the playoffs last year. The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games and 6-3 ATS on the season. Bill Belichick’s team is 34-7 straight up and 30-11 against the number in regular season games dating back to 2016. New England has won seven in a row (playoffs included) against the Titans, last losing in December 2002.
Tom Brady actually has just one touchdown pass in the past two games (Buffalo and Green Bay), but it was a 55-yard scoring strike to Josh Gordon in the fourth quarter to put the Packers away last Sunday night. Brady could get a couple of weapons back that he’s been missing in tight end Rob Gronkowski and running back Sony Michel, who practiced on a limited basis Thursday but remain questionable for the Titans contest. Running back James White has been Brady’s favorite target out of the backfield with a team-high 61 receptions and six TDs to go along with four scoring runs. The Patriots don’t get after the quarterback very well (30th with 13 sacks) and are 26th in passing defense (274.2 yards). Brady has torched the Titans for 10 TDs and zero interceptions in the past three meetings.
Mariota finally ditched the glove on his throwing hand that he was wearing due to numbness in his fingers and – as Jay Cooper predicted – recorded his best game of the season, throwing two touchdown passes and running for another against Dallas. Former Patriot Dion Lewis, who led New England in rushing in 2017, had 122 yards from scrimmage against the Cowboys after recording a season-high 155 yards from scrimmage in the previous game against the Los Angeles Chargers. Corey Davis is the healthiest receiver – and best – with a team-high 36 catches as fellow wideouts Tajae Sharpe and Taywan Taylor are each dealing with injuries. Tennessee is 4-4 thanks to a solid defense that is allowing a league-low 17.6 points per game and allows just 226.3 yards passing.
We know New England is the better team, but the Titans play well as underdogs and are seeking some revenge here while also trying to stay in the playoff hunt. Mariota was impressive last Monday without the glove on his throwing hand and should do well here today. I see Tennessee keeping this one close.
Pick: Titans +6.5
Betting Trends:
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
- Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.
- Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games overall.
- Patriots are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win.
- Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Titans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
- Titans are 10-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Titans are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a ATS win.
- Titans are 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.
- Titans are 18-42-4 ATS in their last 64 vs. AFC.
- Titans are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Titans are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games in November.
- Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 10.
- Titans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Over is 7-0 in Patriots last 7 games in Week 10.
- Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 road games.
- Under is 12-4 in Patriots last 16 games on grass.
- Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 51-24 in Patriots last 75 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 vs. AFC.
- Under is 7-1 in Titans last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games in November.
- Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
