New England (9-4) at Pittsburgh (7-5-1)
When: Sunday, December 16th 2018
Where: Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -1/52
After a slow start to the season, the Pittsburgh Steelers went on a roll with six straight victories and looked as if they might compete for the AFC’s overall top seed. A month later, and Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers are just fighting for their playoff lives and have a huge game with the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh has dropped three straight after last week’s 24-21 loss at Oakland as 10.5-point favorites. Things don’t get any easier after this week, as the Steelers, who hold a half-game lead over Baltimore in the AFC North, travel to New Orleans to take on the powerful Saints next week. New England is coming off a pretty devastating loss of their own, letting Miami pull off a miracle on the last play of the game, giving the Patriots their fourth road loss of the season. The Pats are comfortably locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC, but could still climb up to the top if things fall their way. New England ends the season with the Bills and Jets. Pittsburgh has not fared well in recent memory against the AFC’s best, going 2-9 versus the Patriots in the last 11 games, including 1-5 ATS in the last six in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are just 3-4 straight up at Heinz Field this season after coming into 2018 with a 24-8 mark in the previous four seasons.
Tom Brady threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns at Miami, breaking a NFL record for career touchdown passes (including post season). New England’s biggest problem wasn’t letting Miami score on that final play, but their inability to cash-in when presented the opportunity. They failed to take advantage of three prime red-zone opportunities in which they came away with a total of six points. Rob Gronkowski had his first 100-yard performance since the season opener while Josh Gordon matched his season high with five receptions for 96 yards. New England is ranked 23rd overall on defense, allowing 372.5 yards a game.
Roethlisberger was a full participant at practice this week after sitting out much of the second half of last week’s loss at Oakland due to a rib injury. Starting running back James Conner is a different story. He will be doubtful for Sunday after missing last week’s game due to an ankle injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday and Thursday. The Steelers may have to lean heavily on Big Ben and that isn’t neccessarily a bad thing. He does have perhaps the league’s best wideout tandem in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown, who have combined for 177 receptions and 18 touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s defense is having a hard time slowing down opponents – like they did early on this season before tightening up. They have allowed 39 fourth-quarter points during the three-game losing streak.
The Steelers seem to have a lot of issues going on right now, especially closing out games. We already know New England has their number recently and I think that trend continues. Brady is going to have a big day against a suddenly suspect Pittsburgh defense.
Pick: Patriots -2
Betting Trends:
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 15.
- Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
- Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
- Patriots are 18-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games.
- Patriots are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
- Patriots are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 45-19-1 ATS in their last 65 games following a straight up loss.
- Patriots are 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games following a ATS loss.
- Patriots are 82-40-2 ATS in their last 124 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
- Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
- Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
- Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
- Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games in December.
- Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 23-8 in Patriots last 31 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 road games.
- Under is 13-5 in Patriots last 18 games on grass.
- Over is 51-25 in Patriots last 76 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 home games.
- Over is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 vs. AFC.
- Under is 15-5 in Steelers last 20 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 13-5 in Steelers last 18 games on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
