Green Bay (4-5-1) at Minnesota (5-4-1)
When: Sunday, November 25th 2018
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium,
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Minnesota -4.5/49.5
Either the Green Bay Packers or Minnesota Vikings have won the NFC North since 2011, but both are in need of a win in order to keep pace with the front-running Chicago Bears. Green Bay visits Minnesota to complete their season series on Sunday Night Football – the second-straight week the Vikings have played in this spot. Minnesota dropped a 25-20 decision at Chicago last Sunday night to fall 1.5 games behind the Bears in the division, but it’s now two games after Chicago’s win on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. The Vikes compiled just 268 total yards (22 rushing) against Chicago and turned it over three times, with one interception being returned for a touchdown. Minnesota has now won just two of its past 11 at Soldier Field, and quarterback Kirk Cousins fell to 4-12 in prime-time games. Starting linebacker Anthony Barr missed a third straight game with a hamstring injury, but is expected back this week. The Vikings are 26-9 ATS in their past 35 games following a loss. Green Bay is coming off a 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday after leading 14-3 in the first half, falling to 0-5 on the road. Aaron Rodgers threw for 332 yards and two scores but was sacked five times. He was 2-for-6 passing on third down and four of the sacks came on that down. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings after a 29-29 tie in Week 2 back at Lambeau Field.
Rodgers keeps putting up big numbers – 19 touchdowns against only one interception – but has been unable to guide Green Bay to a road victory since last December in Cleveland. Running back Aaron Jones was held in check rushing (40 yards), but did set season highs with five receptions for 63 yards and a score against the Seahawks. Tight end Jimmy Graham sustained a thumb injury against Seattle and is questionable for Sunday, but Davante Adams set a season high with 166 yards on 10 catches last week. Adams also have a touchdown reception in each of the last three games versus the Vikings. The Packers are No. 5 against the pass (223.0 yards) but are dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary.
Minnesota has struggled to move the ball on offense with Cousins throwing four interceptions in the last three games, two of which were returned for touchdowns in losses to New Orleans and Chicago. The wide receiver combo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs continues to shine despite Thielen failing to score for the first time in seven games last week but still went over 1,000 yards. Diggs had a season-high 13 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown versus Chicago to lead the way. The running game continues to be non-existent as Dalvin Cook was limited to 12 yards on nine carries last week. The Vikings’ defense ranks sixth against the pass (226.0 yards) and fifth against the run (94.8).
The inability for Green Bay to win on the road is the main reason I’m taking the Vikings here. I also think Cousins will have a big game against a depleted Packers secondary and the defense is still solid enough to cause Rodgers some problems. Don’t give up on the Vikings like most people have already – 72% of the betting public is taking Green Bay – not me.
Pick: Vikings -3
Betting Trends:
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Packers are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Packers are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games in November.
- Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
- Packers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC North.
- Packers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Packers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Vikings are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 12.
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Vikings are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games following a straight up loss.
- Vikings are 12-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Vikings are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games on fieldturf.
- Vikings are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 home games.
- Vikings are 47-23-1 ATS in their last 71 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. NFC North.
- Over is 11-1 in Packers last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 21-5 in Packers last 26 vs. NFC.
- Over is 8-2 in Packers last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games in Week 12.
- Over is 16-5 in Packers last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 12-4 in Packers last 16 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 24-9 in Packers last 33 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Packers last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 36-16 in Packers last 52 road games.
- Over is 15-7 in Packers last 22 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 7-2 in Vikings last 9 games in Week 12.
- Under is 19-7 in Vikings last 26 vs. NFC North.
- Under is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota.
- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
- Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Minnesota.
