Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1) at Texas (3-2, 2-0)
When: Saturday, October 14th 2017
Where: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Oklahoma -10.5/64.5
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After one of the arguably worst defeats in program history, the Oklahoma Sooners must regroup to face the Texas Longhorns in the annual Red River Showdown at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday. With an impressive road win at Ohio State last month, Oklahoma looked well on its way to a berth in the College Football Playoff before a stunning 38-31 home loss last Saturday to 31.5-point underdog Iowa State. The Longhorns, not the Sooners, come into this one atop the Big 12 standings along with TCU at 2-0 following a wild 40-34 double overtime victory over Kansas State last weekend. Oklahoma has plenty of time to get back on track as it did two years ago when the Sooners rebounded from an unexpected loss to the Longhorns to win seven straight before falling to Clemson in the CFP that season. Texas holds a 61-45-5 lead in the series, which began in 1900 and has been played at the Texas State Fair annually since 1929. Head coaches Tom Herman and Lincoln Riley will be making their debuts in the Red River Showdown, marking the first time since 1947 that the rivalry has featured new coaches on both sidelines.
Baker Mayfield, who leads the nation in completion percentage (74.6), passing efficiency rating (214.1) and passing yards per attempt (12.2), will be making a rare fourth start in the Red River Showdown. He’s 1-2 after leading the Sooners to a 45-40 victory last year, and has mediocre statistics (66-of-103, 838 yards, 4 TDs, 3 interceptions) in those three starts. He may be without his top big-play threat in wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who injured his left shoulder diving for a touchdown against Iowa State. Oklahoma has scored at least 30 points in a school-record 15 consecutive games. The defense will be the key in this game as the Sooners have allowed an average of 486 yards and 39.5 points over its last two games against Baylor and Iowa State.
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The Tom Herman era got started with an embarrassing 51-41 home loss to Maryland, but Texas has looked good winning three of their last four with the lone defeat coming at No. 13 USC, 27-24, in double overtime. Herman has not announced who will start at quarterback after sophomore starter Shane Buechele missed the Kansas State victory with a sprained ankle. Freshman Sam Ehlinger, who passed for 380 yards and rushed for 107 more Saturday, has proven to be a valuable backup and could get the nod on Saturday. After allowing those 51 points to Maryland, the Longhorn defense has tightened up and allowed an average of 17 points over the last four games with junior safety DeShon Elliott (nation-best five interceptions) and linebacker Malik Jefferson (43 tackles) leading the way.
SATURDAY’S FREE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS
I don’t know what’s wrong with the Oklahoma team the last few weeks after just getting by a weak Baylor team, the losing at home to Iowa State. They seem to be playing down to their competition and they better not take Texas lightly. The Longhorns seem to be getting better and better each week under Herman. Their offense is very efficient and they are very hard to run on. This seems like a small enough line for the Sooners to cover, but I like Texas to make this a one-score game.
Pick: Texas +7.5
TRENDS:
- Sooners are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Sooners are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games following a straight up loss.
- Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Longhorns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Longhorns are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Longhorns are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Over is 4-0 in Sooners last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 10-1 in Sooners last 11 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 neutral site games.
- Under is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Sooners last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 12-4 in Sooners last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 20-7 in Sooners last 27 games in October.
- Over is 20-7 in Sooners last 27 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 22-9-1 in Sooners last 32 conference games.
- Under is 5-0 in Longhorns last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-1 in Longhorns last 10 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 21-7 in Longhorns last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-3 in Longhorns last 11 games in October.
- Under is 26-10 in Longhorns last 36 conference games.
- Under is 5-2 in Longhorns last 7 neutral site games.
- Under is 35-17 in Longhorns last 52 games overall.
- Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Texas.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Sooners are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Texas.
- Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
