Ohio (8-4) vs San Diego State (7-5)
When: Wednesday, December 19th 2018
Where: Toyota Stadium,
Frisco, Texas
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Ohio -4.5/55
Two veteran coaches will bring their team into the state of Texas this Wednesday for the second annual Frisco Bowl as the Ohio Bobcats out of the MAC take on the San Diego State Aztecs from the Mountain West Conference. Ohio coach Frank Solich is 74 years old while San Diego State’s Rocky Long turns 69 in January, so nothing should get by these two wily veterans when they oppose each other. These teams ended their seasons in opposite directions with the Aztecs dropping their final three contests and four of their last five including a 31-30 overtime loss to visiting Hawaii in their season finale. Meanwhile, Ohio won five of its final six games to finish in a tie for second place in the Mid-American Conference’s East Division including a 52-17 blowout win over East champion Buffalo. This won’t be one of those air-raid attack games, as the Bobcats rank eighth nationally in rushing the football with an average of 262.2 yards per game including 38 rushing touchdowns. They will be tested against a San Diego State defense that ranks fourth nationally in stopping the run behind only powers Michigan State, Texas A&M and Clemson, allowing an average of 94.5 yards per game and 2.75 yards per attempt. Both teams failed to reach their respective conference championship games, which means they will both enter this game with just under four full weeks of rest.
The Aztecs are not a high-scoring team, with 31 points against New Mexico being their high for the season and rank 109th nationally in total offense with an average of 354 yards per game. Injuries to key positions have been a big factor in that, as starting quarterback Christian Chapman (50-of-87, 774 yards, four touchdowns) missed six games with an MCL injury suffered in the second game of the season, while star running back Juwan Washington (870 yards and 10 TDs on 180 carries) missed four games with a broken clavicle early in the year. Both are back now with Washington rushing for 158 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries in the season-ending overtime loss to Hawaii. Chapman is back as well, but he’s been splitting snaps with junior Ryan Agnew, who has completed 104-of-199 passes for 1,525 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Senior running back A.J. Ouellette will play his final game for Ohio and he’s had a great career, culminating with first team all-MAC honors and was named the MAC Player of the Year by the Touchdown Club of Columbus after rushing for 1,142 yards and 12 touchdowns including a career-high 196 yards in the win over Buffalo. That’s quite an accomplishment for Ouellette, who also gets significant help from senior running back Maleek Irons (831 yards and eight TDs on 126 carries) and junior quarterback Nathan Rourke (816 yards on 125 carries, 13 TDs), who also passed for 2,228 yards and a career-high 22 touchdowns while earning second-team MAC honors. Senior wide receiver Papi White (58 receptions, 897 yards, nine TDs) is Rourke’s go-to receiver, which earned him a first team all-MAC selection. Linebacker Evan Croutch (team-high 79 tackles, four sacks) leads the a Bobcats’ defense that ranked 35th nationally against the run, but 114th against the pass.
I’m going to take a shot at the under in this one. Both of these teams have pretty good defenses, especially SDSU, and they run the ball a lot which should keep the clock moving. Remember, the Aztecs high this season was 31 points in a conference that has some pretty bad defenses. As for a side in this game? I would lean San Diego State based on the fact that they are 13-0-1 SU lifetime vs. MWC opponents and the underdog in Aztec games this season is 11-1 ATS.
Pick: UNDER 53.5
Betting Trends:
- Aztecs are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
- Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
- Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
- Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Aztecs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
- Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
- Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
- Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Bobcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
- Bobcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Bobcats are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games on grass.
- Bobcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 35-17 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bobcats are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 4-0 in Aztecs last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Aztecs last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 20-8 in Aztecs last 28 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 9-4 in Aztecs last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Bobcats last 4 non-conference games.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Bobcats last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Bobcats last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Bobcats last 6 games on grass.
- Over is 8-2-2 in Bobcats last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Bobcats last 5 games overall.
- Under is 22-8-1 in Bobcats last 31 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Bobcats last 8 games in December.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Bobcats last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 7-3 in Bobcats last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4-1 in Bobcats last 14 neutral site games.
- Over is 11-5-1 in Bobcats last 17 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 19-9-1 in Bobcats last 29 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
