N. Illinois (7-4) at W. Michigan (6-5)
When: Tuesday, November 20th 2018
Where: Waldo Stadium,
Kalamazoo, Michigan
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPNU
Opening Odds: Northern Illinois -5.5/48.5
The Western Michigan Broncos have enough wins to be Bowl-eligible this season with six, but as they found out last year, six may not be enough. The Broncos will look to improve on their Bowl standing when they host the Northern Illinois Huskies in MAC play Tuesday night – the regular season finale for both teams. The Broncos finished 2017 with a 6-6 record but did not make a bowl appearance, as the conference only has a few Bowl tie-ins, and were thus left out. Western Michigan opened 0-2 after losses to now highly-ranked Syracuse and Michigan but reeled off six straight wins. A season-ending injury to quarterback Jon Wassink, however, proved costly. The Broncos have dropped three straight, including a 42-41 overtime defeat at Ball State last Tuesday. A loss on Tuesday could keep Western Michigan out of the postseason once again. After earning six consecutive trips to the MAC title game from 2010-15, Northern Illinois went two years without a West Division title, but are now back on top and have already booked a trip to Detroit on November 30th. NIU started 1-3 with losses to Iowa, Utah and Florida State but won six of their next seven contests. The offense has struggled this season for the Huskies, but the own the MAC’s top-ranked defense. Western Michigan holds a 24-19 series edge in the all-time series, but NIU has won eight out of the last nine. Western Michigan won the last meeting between these two teams (2016) in Kalamazoo.
Northern Illinois has produced only 179 points in MAC play and averages just 19.8 points a contest overall in 2018. Additionally, they are averaging only 4.5 yards a play, which ranks 11th in the MAC and have generated just four plays of 40 yards or more and one completion of 40 or more yards. The Huskies rank second in the MAC by averaging 43.3 rushing attempts per game and are fifth in yard per game running (183.1). Tre Harbison could surpass 1,000 yard with 97 Tuesday and has recorded three consecutive 100-yard efforts. NIU also has capable depth in Marcus Jones (523 yards) and Jordan Nettles (196). Quarterback Marcus Childers has accounted for 385 yards on the ground and five scores and has recorded double-digit carries in nine of Northern Illinois’ 11 games. The Huskies lead the MAC in stopping the run, rank fourth in pass efficiency defense and have recorded 40 sacks through 11 games. Sutton Smith (nine sacks) is one of the top Group of 5 players and will go up against a Western Michigan offensive line that has allowed only 11 sacks this season.
The loss of Wassink has played a huge role in Western Michigan’s three-game slide and offensive woes. True freshman Kaleb Eleby has been pressed into a starting role and has completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 632 yards, four touchdowns to two interceptions. Eleby isn’t making a ton of mistakes but has yet to top 200 yards passing in his last two games. Western’s leading receivers are Jayden Reed (50 catches), D’Wayne Eskridge (30), and Giovanni Ricci (32). The Broncos would like to establish the run with LeVante Bellamy (1,120 yards) and Jamauri Bogan (639), but Northern Illinois is holding opponents to just 20.3 points a game and 4.6 yards a play.
This is a case where Western has a lot more to play for and they’re at home. We saw the lack of motivation NIU had last week, and the Broncos should take advantage of that. I like this to be a close game.
Pick: Western Michigan +5.5
Betting Trends:
- Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Huskies are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Huskies are 38-18-3 ATS in their last 59 road games.
- Huskies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games.
- Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Huskies last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1 in Huskies last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 6-1 in Huskies last 7 games overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Huskies last 7 conference games.
- Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Huskies last 9 Tuesday games.
- Under is 7-2 in Huskies last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 6-2 in Huskies last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 15-6 in Huskies last 21 games in November.
- Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games in November.
- Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 Tuesday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 conference games.
- Over is 14-4 in Broncos last 18 home games.
- Over is 21-8-1 in Broncos last 30 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Broncos last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Huskies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Western Michigan.
- Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Huskies are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
