Kansas City (9-1) at LA Rams (9-1)
When: Monday, November 19th 2018
Where: L.A. Memorial Coliseum,
Los Angeles, California
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Los Angeles -3/63.5
Not only is this the most anticipated game of the season, it also could very well be a preview of this year’s Super Bowl as the Kansas City Chiefs invade Southern California to take on the Los Angeles Rams. This was supposed to have a Super Bowl-feel to it, as the game was scheduled to take place in Mexico City, but officials deemed the playing surface unplayable, thus moving it back to the L.A. Coliseum, where the Rams would have been the home team anyway. It still might feel like a neutral site game, as the Rams haven’t built up the loyal fan base they once had before moving to St. Louis in the ’80s. We should see plenty of offense from their two teams, as the Over/Under for this game is the highest since they began record keeping in 1986 – 63.5. The Chiefs are coming off four straight victories including a lackluster 26-14 home win over Arizona, while the Rams rebounded from their only loss (45-35 to the Saints) with a 36-31 victory of the Seattle Seahawks. Since 1997 the Chiefs and Rams have met six times, with Kansas City winning and covering the spread in all six games. Monday night games have treated Kansas City well, as they’ve covered five of their last six, while the Rams are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on Monday. Dating back to last season, the Chiefs are 12-3 ATS overall (including 8-2 ATS this season), while L.A. is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and 4-6 ATS this season.
K.C. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has already set a record for most passing touchdowns in Chiefs history (31), and he still has six games to go. His streak of eight straight 300-yard performances ended in last week’s win over Arizona, but he threw two more scoring passes and has just seven interceptions on the season. Mahomes is blessed with great weapons including wide receiver Tyreek Hill (nine touchdowns) and tight end Travis Kelce, who leads the team with 57 catches to go along with six scores. Running back Kareem Hunt can also be a weapon out of the backfield with 13 total TDs on 754 yards rushing and 23 receptions. Kansas City’s defense is a problem, ranking 29th overall with an average of 410.7 yards allowed but is tied for second in the league in sacks with 31.
Mahomes maybe the leading MVP candidate, but Rams running back Todd Gurley is a close second. He leads the NFL in both rushing and touchdowns, and needs only 12 yards to reach 1,000 and has scored 17 times – two shy of his total from last year. Jared Goff has 22 touchdown passes to just six interceptions and has recorded four straight games with a passer rating of at least 111.0. Goff lost one of his favorite targets in wideout Cooper Kupp, who had a team-high six touchdown receptions before he was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Not all is lost, however, as Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks have 55 and 51 catches, respectively, and are capable of picking up the slack. Los Angeles has a dangerous defensive line that features the league’s sacks leader in Aaron Donald (12.5), but the Rams allow 122.1 yards a game on the ground, 23rd in the league.
This should be a terrific shootout here, and I’m taking the points. The Rams don’t have a huge home field advantage and they’ve had a hard time covering spreads even though they’re winning games. All Kansas City does is win and cover. Mahomes is more explosive than Goff and can runaway from the Rams constant pressure. I can see the Chiefs winning outright.
Pick: Chiefs +3.5
Betting Trends:
- Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
- Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
- Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
- Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Chiefs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
- Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 11.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Rams are 16-40-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Rams are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Rams are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
- Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Rams are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Rams are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 11.
- Rams are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 road games.
- Under is 17-4 in Chiefs last 21 games in Week 11.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 games on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 20-8-1 in Chiefs last 29 games in November.
- Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games in Week 11.
- Over is 7-1 in Rams last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 10-4 in Rams last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Rams last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 11-5 in Rams last 16 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 21-10 in Rams last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
