Originally posted on 9/1/25
The NFC South is one of the worst divisions in the league and one of the main reasons is the lack of superstar quarterbacks. The Bucs, who are favored to win the division, have the most stable signal-caller. The Panthers and Falcons are trying to mold young arms, while the Saints are still looking for their future quarterback. This will probably be just a one playoff team season for the NFC South.
NFC South Standings [2024]
| NFC | SOUTH | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Bucs | 10 | 7 | 0 |
 | Falcons | 8 | 9 | 0 |
 | Panthers | 5 | 12 | 0 |
 | Saints | 5 | 12 | 0 |
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-110)
If Mayfield duplicates last seasons numbers, the Bucs will score a lot of points. Mayfield threw 41 touchdowns and passed for 4,500 despite not having Chris Godwin for the last 10 games. Godwin is back, along with Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and first-round pick Emeka Egbuka. Defense will be the concern and the Bucs are hoping free agent addition Haasan Reddick can provide some pressure on the edge.
Odds to Win NFC South (as of 9/1/25):
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -110
Atlanta Falcons +205
Carolina Panthers +425
New Orleans Saints +1500
ATLANTA FALCONS (+205)
Michael Penix, Jr. will enter his second season under center after unseating Kirk Cousins towards the end of the season last year. Atlanta should be fine on offense with Penix, Drake London, Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts. The defense was horrible last season, ranking 31st in sacks with just 31 and took two defensive players in the first round, giving up a No. 1 pick in 2026 to do so.
Week 1 NFL Lines, Free Picks and Futures
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+425)
It looked like quarterback Bryce Young was going to be a bust after his rookie season and was eventually replaced by Andy Dalton after an 0-2 start last season. Young came back for the final 10 games and threw 15 touchdowns to six interceptions. The Panthers gave him first round wide receivers in each of the last two years, but that also means they have sacrificed defense in the process. Carolina was No. 32 overall on D last season and that needs to improve.
Season Win Totals (as of 8/25/25):
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9.5 o115
Atlanta Falcons 7.5 o165
Carolina Panthers 6.5 o150
New Orleans Saints 5.5 u170
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+1500)
New head coach Kellen Moore has his hands full with this Saints roster. Derek Carr retired and New Orleans settled for Louisville’s Tyler Slough in the second round of the draft. Spencer Rattler gets the Week 1 start and that isn’t a good sign for the season ahead. The defense isn’t terrible, but they may be on the field a lot if the offense can’t sustain drives.
Jay’s Season Win Total Best Bet: You don’t see many season win totals under 10 for a team predicted to win the division. The Bucs should go 5-1 in the division, which means they just to find five more victories. The road games are tough: Buffalo, Houston, Detroit and the Rams. They can get at least one of those. They get Philly and San Fran at home. The other non-division games are winnable and they should be favored in all of them.
Bucs OVER 9.5 -115
Jay’s Pick to Win Division: Let’s go all-in on Tampa Bay. They won 10 games last season and there’s no reason to think they can’t duplicate that. I think the defense will be better and the offense will put up some points. I don’t see the Falcons or Panthers as a threat to Tampa Bay.
Bucs -110
To see more odds and props for the NFC South, click here.
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