Washington (84-54) at Miami (67-71)
When: Wednesday, September 6th 2017
Where: Marlins Park, Miami, FL
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MASN2, FSN Florida
Opening Odds: Miami -105/9
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The Miami Marlins are playing themselves out of the playoff picture and it’s not a coincidence that slugger Giancarlo Stanton is struggling at the same time. The majors HR leader and Miami will try and get back on track when they host the Washington Nationals in their season series finale on Wednesday. The Nationals have already won the season series with a 12-6 advantage, and could cut their magic number for clinching the NL East down to six with a series sweep on Wednesday. Stanton is mired in a 2-for-26 slump and is only 6-for-29 lifetime against tonight’s starter Gio Gonzalez. Daniel Murphy is also having his way with Miami this season, going 5-for-9 with four RBIs and three runs scored in the series and 18-for-51 with three homers, 12 RBIs and 11 runs scored versus the Marlins this season. The Marlins have dropped eight of nine overall to fall seven games behind Colorado in the race for the National League’s second wild card. Marcell Ozuna recorded his third three-hit performance in nine games on Tuesday, but is batting just .238 versus Gonzalez. Nationals RF Jayson Werth is 0-for-18 with five strikeouts in his last five games.
Pitchers: Nationals – Gio Gonzalez (13-6, 2.58 ERA) | Marlins – Dillon Peters (0-0, 0.00)
Gonzalez has been nothing short of spectacular in his career against Miami, posting a 9-3 mark with a 1.94 ERA in 15 career starts and a 3-0 record with a 1.29 ERA and 26 strikeouts in four outings (28 innings) this season. Gonzalez saw his five-star winning streak come to an end in his last outing against Milwaukee, allowing five runs in six innings – the most he’s surrendered since May 8th.
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Dillon Peters will make his second career start and hopes it goes as well as the first. The 25-year old scattered three hits over seven scoreless innings versus Philadelphia on Friday and struck out eight. Those strikeouts matched Jose Fernandez’s 2013 franchise record for a pitcher in his major-league debut. The bullpen was unable to hold a one-run lead in the ninth and spoiled Peters’ bid for his first career victory.
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The Marlins are struggling. The Nationals are getting hot. Gonzalez owns the Marlins. How is this line only -120? If it’s a trap, I’ll take the bait. Another note: The Marlins plan on taking their families with them on their road trip ahead of Hurricane Irma, so their minds might not be on Baseball.
Pick: Nationals -120
BETTING TRENDS:
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 10-3 in their last 13 during game 3 of a series.
- Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Nationals are 27-11 in their last 38 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
- Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 games on grass.
- Nationals are 44-20 in their last 64 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 70-34 in their last 104 vs. National League East.
- Nationals are 35-17 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Gonzalez’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Gonzalez’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts.
- Nationals are 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Nationals are 5-1 in Gonzalez’s last 6 starts vs. National League East.
- Nationals are 21-6 in Gonzalez’s last 27 Wednesday starts.
- Nationals are 6-2 in Gonzalez’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 7-3 in Gonzalez’s last 10 road starts.
- Marlins are 9-3 in their last 12 during game 3 of a series.
- Marlins are 20-7 in their last 27 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
- Marlins are 10-4 in their last 14 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 9-4 in their last 13 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 home games.
- Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a loss.
- Marlins are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. National League East.
- Marlins are 1-8 in their last 9 overall.
- Marlins are 1-8 in their last 9 games on grass.
- Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 10-1-2 in Nationals last 13 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-1-2 in Nationals last 12 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-1-2 in Nationals last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 Wednesday games.
- Under is 14-4-3 in Nationals last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Nationals last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 20-7-2 in Nationals last 29 games following a win.
- Under is 17-6-3 in Nationals last 26 road games.
- Under is 16-6-4 in Nationals last 26 overall.
- Under is 16-6-4 in Nationals last 26 on grass.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Nationals last 8 vs. National League East.
- Over is 9-4-3 in Nationals last 16 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 35-17-5 in Nationals last 57 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 5-0 in Gonzalez’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Gonzalez’s last 6 road starts.
- Under is 7-1 in Gonzalez’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Gonzalez’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Gonzalez’s last 12 starts on grass.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Gonzalez’s last 12 starts overall.
- Over is 13-5 in Gonzalez’s last 18 Wednesday starts.
- Under is 5-2 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 22-9 in Gonzalez’s last 31 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Marlins last 8 home games.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Marlins last 7 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Marlins last 7 on grass.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Marlins last 7 vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 Wednesday games.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Marlins last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 23-8-2 in Marlins last 33 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Marlins last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Marlins last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 7-3 in Marlins last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Nationals are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
- Nationals are 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts vs. Marlins.
- Under is 21-8-1 in the last 30 meetings in Miami.
