Miami OH (3-5) at Buffalo (7-1)
When: Tuesday, October 30th 2018
Where: UB Stadium,
Buffalo, New York
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Buffalo -8.5
November is almost here, which means a lot of things – Halloween, MLB is over, College Hoops is about to start, Thanksgiving is around the corner – but another constant is MAC Football during the week. Every year, the MAC finishes their final few weeks on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays and that tradition kicks off this Tuesday night with a big battle in the East Division as the Miami Redhawks visit the Buffalo Bulls for first place. The Redhawks may have just three wins on the season, but all of those have come in conference play and with a win Tuesday, would give Buffalo their first MAC loss and tie them atop the East Division, with Miami holding the tiebreaker. Ohio also has just one loss and will play Thursday at Western Michigan. Miami has rebounded nicely from an 0-3 non-conference schedule – including being outscored 47-3 in losses to Cincinnati and Minnesota – to start 3-1 in MAC play, with the only loss being a one-point setback versus Western Michigan. Buffalo would tie a school record of eight wins with a victory Tuesday, as their only loss of the season came against an Army team that ran all over them with the option that the Bulls clearly weren’t ready for. Buffalo is coming off an impressive 31-17 road win at Toledo and both teams will have had 10 days rest to prepare for this tilt. The Redhawks have won the last two meetings, snapping a Buffalo four-game winning streak in the series. The home team has covered the spread in three of the past four.
Miami’s overall offensive numbers are poor in comparing them to the rest of the country – 100th in total offense, 90th in scoring – but the three points they scored in two non-conference games hurt. Since conference play started, Miami is averaging over 35 points a game, while the defense has clamped down as well. Quarterback Gus Ragland leads the charge with 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions, including a TD/INT ratio of 7:1 in MAC play. His favorite target is sophomore wideout Jack Sorenson, who leads the team in both catches (32) and receiving yards (499), while senior running back Alonzo Smith averages 4.6 yards per carry.
Buffalo’s passing numbers may not impress (66th in nation), but the wide receiver combo of K.J. Osborn and Anthony Johnson has been quite productive. Osborn is among the top receivers in the MAC with 696 yards and six touchdowns, while Johnson has been more of a home-run threat with five touchdowns on just 24 receptions. Junior quarterback Tyree Jackson is completing just 56.5% of his passes, but has 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions after throwing three picks at Toledo last time out. Buffalo’s defense is hard to throw against, ranking 11th in the country at 168.4 yards per contest.
I’ve been on this Buffalo team a few times this season, and despite Miami’s recent success, I don’t think they can keep up with the Bulls here. This Buffalo team is the cream of the MAC and it would be a disappointment if they didn’t win the title. Seven points is not a lot to give up here – I think the Bulls roll.
Pick: Buffalo -7
Betting Trends:
- Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Redhawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Redhawks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Redhawks are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Redhawks are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Redhawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
- Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
- Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
- Bulls are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Bulls are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
- Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
- Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bulls are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a bye week.
- Over is 5-1 in Redhawks last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 Tuesday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 9-3 in Redhawks last 12 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 37-16 in Redhawks last 53 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 37-17 in Redhawks last 54 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games following a bye week.
- Over is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 Tuesday games.
- Over is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games in October.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Bulls last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Bulls last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Bulls last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games overall.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Bulls last 11 home games.
- Favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Redhawks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
