NY Mets (9-5) at Atlanta (8-6)
When: Sunday, April 14th, 2019
Where: SunTrust Park,
Cumberland, GA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: New York -147/8
The National League East was predicted to be the most competitive division in Baseball this season and after three weeks, it appears we are going to have a fun summer on the East Coast. The top four teams are all over .500 and within 1.5 games of each other with the New York Mets currently sitting atop, despite a 2-3 home record. New York will bring their 7-2 road mark into the finale of a four-game set with the Atlanta Braves on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, as ace Jacob deGrom tries to rebound from a rare poor outing. The reigning NL Cy Young winner will try and cool off an Atlanta team that pounded out a season-high 13 hits in an 11-7 triumph on Saturday, snapping the Mets three-game winning streak and giving the Braves a chance to split the series on Sunday. Six Atlanta hitters recorded two or more hits, while receiving home runs for the first time this season from third baseman Josh Donaldson and right fielder Nick Markakis. Donaldson recorded his second straight multi-hit game while extending his hitting streak to six games. Shortstop Dansby Swanson drove in three of the 11 runs and now has 18 on the season after 14 games. New York’s Jeff McNeil and Juan Lagares each contributed two hits, with the former extending his hitting streak to four games, while Lagares recorded his first multi-hit game since last May.
Pitchers: Mets – Jacob deGrom (2-1, 3.18 ERA) | Braves – Julio Teheran (1-1, 6.00)
New York scored three runs or fewer in 21 of deGrom’s 32 starts last season including one run or fewer nine times, but have already backed him with 16 runs in his first three starts in 2019. deGrom is coming off a rough outing in which his streak of consecutive quality starts ended at 26 when the Minnesota Twins scored six runs on eight hits off the Mets’ ace in four innings. In his first two starts against Washington and Miami, deGrom struck out 24 in 13 scoreless innings with two walks. He was 1-2 in six starts against Atlanta a year ago with a minuscule 0.88 ERA.
Julio Teheran will make his fourth start of the young season and is seeking to get past five innings for the first time. He was on his way on Monday at Colorado, but a disastrous fifth frame did him in, as he allowed six runs in that inning against the Rockies, but managed to come away with a victory in the 8-6 Atlanta win. Teheran was 1-2 with a 1.65 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in five starts against New York last season.
If you take out that one inning in Teheran’s three starts, his numbers are actually pretty good. They were also solid against this New York team in 2018. I expect a solid outing out of him and can almost guarantee the same – if not better – for deGrom. You won’t see the offensive outburst we saw on Saturday. Take the under.
Bobby Babowski has three plays Sunday on his Free MLB Picks page. He is 28-18 +723 Units on the season.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 -110
BETTING TRENDS:
Mets are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Mets are 21-6 in their last 27 games following a loss.
Mets are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. National League East.
Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 14-6 in their last 20 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Mets are 11-5 in their last 16 overall.
Mets are 11-5 in their last 16 games on grass.
Mets are 4-0 in deGrom’s last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Mets are 4-1 in deGrom’s last 5 road starts.
Mets are 4-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts.
Mets are 4-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts on grass.
Mets are 5-2 in deGrom’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 7-3 in deGrom’s last 10 starts during game 4 of a series.
Mets are 5-11 in deGrom’s last 16 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 4-13 in deGrom’s last 17 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Mets are 0-5 in deGrom’s last 5 Sunday starts.
Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 12-4 in their last 16 home games.
Braves are 8-3 in their last 11 overall.
Braves are 8-3 in their last 11 games on grass.
Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win.
Braves are 20-8 in their last 28 Sunday games.
Braves are 14-6 in their last 20 during game 4 of a series.
Braves are 8-19 in their last 27 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. National League East.
Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Braves are 5-1 in Teheran’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 9-2 in Teheran’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 4-1 in Teheran’s last 5 home starts.
Braves are 4-1 in Teheran’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 20-6 in Teheran’s last 26 Sunday starts.
Braves are 13-5 in Teheran’s last 18 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 5-2 in Teheran’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
Braves are 7-3 in Teheran’s last 10 starts.
Braves are 7-3 in Teheran’s last 10 starts on grass.
Braves are 1-4 in Teheran’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 games following a loss.
Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1-1 in Mets last 8 road games.
Over is 10-2-1 in Mets last 13 overall.
Over is 10-2-1 in Mets last 13 on grass.
Under is 10-2 in Mets last 12 during game 4 of a series.
Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 Sunday games.
Over is 8-2-1 in Mets last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 8-2-1 in Mets last 11 vs. National League East.
Over is 7-2 in Mets last 9 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 3-1-2 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 6-2-1 in Mets last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-0-1 in deGrom’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 9-1-1 in deGrom’s last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1-1 in deGrom’s last 7 road starts.
Under is 12-3-1 in deGrom’s last 16 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 15-4-2 in deGrom’s last 21 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 9-3-1 in deGrom’s last 13 Sunday starts.
Under is 3-1-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 19-7-1 in deGrom’s last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 21-8-2 in deGrom’s last 31 starts on grass.
Under is 21-8-2 in deGrom’s last 31 starts overall.
Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 vs. National League East.
Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 Sunday games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-2 in Braves last 7 during game 4 of a series.
Under is 3-1-1 in Braves last 5 games following a win.
Under is 5-2-1 in Braves last 8 overall.
Under is 5-2-1 in Braves last 8 on grass.
Under is 7-3-1 in Braves last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 7-3-2 in Braves last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-3-1 in Braves last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-1 in Teheran’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Over is 4-1 in Teheran’s last 5 starts on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Teheran’s last 5 starts overall.
Under is 6-2 in Teheran’s last 8 Sunday starts.
Under is 9-3-1 in Teheran’s last 13 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3-1 in Teheran’s last 12 starts during game 4 of a series.
Under is 20-8-1 in Teheran’s last 29 home starts.
Under is 7-3 in Teheran’s last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 17-8-1 in Teheran’s last 26 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Teheran’s last 4 home starts vs. Mets.
Under is 6-0 in deGrom’s last 6 starts vs. Braves.
Mets are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 6-2 in deGrom’s last 8 road starts vs. Braves.
Under is 5-2 in Teheran’s last 7 starts vs. Mets.
Braves are 2-5 in Teheran’s last 7 home starts vs. Mets.
Mets are 1-5 in deGrom’s last 6 starts vs. Braves.
