Georgia (11-1) vs Alabama (12-0)
When: Saturday, December 1st 2018
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium,
Atlanta, Georgia
Time: 4:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Alabama -12/62
The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide are well on their way to another possible national championship, but they still have work to do, and first up is a rematch of last year’s title game with the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday. Alabama came back in that game last year for a 26-23 overtime victory in what was the coming out party for Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who came off the bench to throw three touchdown passes. Tagovailoa has answered that performance with an absolute monster season (36 TD, 2 INT), leading the Tide to the second-most points in FBS (49.0) and the sixth-best passing attack (332.1) and another undefeated regular season. Alabama won every game by double-digits and all but one by 24 or more, as the defense allowed just 13.8 points a game, with the defining point being a 29-0 shutout at LSU back on November 3rd. Georgia, meanwhile, lost 36-16 at LSU for their only loss, but outside of that lackluster performance, were just as dominating as the Crimson Tide. Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart is very aware of the danger Tagovailoa posses. “He’s very confident, and he’s got a presence about him in the pocket. He doesn’t fear rush; if he’s got guys bearing down on him, he sidesteps and gets the ball out, and that’s what makes him very special.” Alabama has won the last four meetings, but the teams have split in terms of the spread.
Tagovailoa’s 36 scoring strikes are a school-record, giving Alabama a dynamic offense they’ve never had before. With the offensive explosion this season, several wide receivers are enjoying big seasons including Jerry Jeudy, who has 56 receptions for 1,079 and 11 touchdowns while fellow sophomore wideout DeVonta Smith has 27 receptions. His big moment game in last year’s title game when he caught the game-winning 41-yard touchdown pass. The Crimson Tide defense is led by sophomore nose guard Quinnen Williams, who recorded a team-leading 16 tackles for loss and senior defensive end Isaiah Buggs had a team-best 9.5 sacks.
Sophomore quarterback Jake Fromm has bounced back from his two-interception outing in last season’s title game with just five picks this season while passing for 2,236 yards and 24 touchdowns. Georgia averages 40.1 points a game and is a run-first offense led by two standout running backs in sophomore D’Andre Swift (962 yards, nine touchdowns) and junior Elijah Holyfield (896 yards, seven scores). Wide receiver Mecole Hardman leads the conference with a 21.8 average on punt returns (one TD) and also averages 26.2 yards on kickoff returns. The defense is also strong, allowing an average of 17.2 points with senior linebacker D’Andre Walker (team-high 6.5 sacks) and sophomore safety Richard LeCounte (team-leading 64 tackles) leading the way.
This is a really good Georgia football team, but this Alabama squad is out of this world. I’m using the LSU game as a comparison and Georgia really struggled there, while the Tide rolled. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference championship game, but I’m going to do it.
Pick: Alabama -13
Betting Trends:
- Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
- Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Crimson Tide are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
- Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
- Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Bulldogs are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Crimson Tide last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 20-5-1 in Crimson Tide last 26 neutral site games.
- Over is 5-2 in Crimson Tide last 7 games in December.
- Over is 9-4 in Crimson Tide last 13 games overall.
- Over is 19-9 in Crimson Tide last 28 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 neutral site games.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Bulldogs last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Bulldogs last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 21-8 in Bulldogs last 29 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Bulldogs last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Georgia.
- Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
