Miami (4-3) at Houston (4-3)
When: Thursday, October 25th 2018
Where: NRG Stadium,
Houston, Texas
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Houston -7/45.5
The Houston Texans season got off to an awful start despite the return of star quarterback Deshaun Watson, but the team has righted the ship and are now in the driver’s seat in the AFC South. Houston looks to extend its four-game winning streak when they host the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 8 action. Houston is coming off a nice 20-7 road win at Jacksonville to move them into sole possession of first place in the division. Houston is just the sixth team in the Super Bowl era to win four straight games after starting 0-3. The resurgence has mainly come from the defense, which has allowed 36 total points in the past three weeks after surrendering 74 in the first three. Watson is reportedly dealing with a collapsed lung so he didn’t fly from Houston to Jacksonville – he took a bus – but still managed 139 yards passing and a touchdown. The Dolphins don’t have a shot at winning their division as long as Tom Brady is leading the Patriots, but at 4-3, still have wild card aspirations. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is expected to miss a third straight game after being oddly scratched with a mystery shoulder injury the morning of the Week 6 game against Chicago. It was so strange that the NFL opened an investigation. Brock Osweiler stepped in and helped Miami upset the Bears and played decent last week, but the Dolphins fell 32-21 at home to Detroit. Osweiler’s top receiver, Albert Wilson, left with a hip injury and is out indefinitely. He has 26 catches for 391 yards and four scores on the season. The Texans are 7-1 all-time vs. the Dolphins with the lone loss coming in the latest meeting in 2015, a 44-26 Miami victory.
Former first-round pick DeVante Parker was surprisingly inactive for Sunday’s setback to Detroit, but injuries to Wilson and Kenny Stills (groin) will give the wideout more chances going forward. Danny Amendola led the team with six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown versus the Lions, while Kenyan Drake scored for the first time in a month and has 15 catches in his last three games. Miami’s defense allowed 248 yards and three touchdowns on the ground versus Detroit and allowed the Lions six scoring drives of at least 63 yards. Miami is 1-7 ATS in its past eight on the road.
Lamar Miller rushed for a season-high 100 yards on 22 carries with a touchdown for his first 100-yard performance since the 2016 season. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has been held below 100 yards in each of the last two games, but has a touchdown catch in each and didn’t take too kindly to Miami CB Xavien Howard claiming he “likes to push off a lot,”. Hopkins offered the following response: “Who’s Xavien Howard?” The Texans will be in Denver next week before entering their bye week.
Watson isn’t having the same type of season as he was before he got hurt in his rookie campaign, but Houston’s issues early on were the defense. That seems to be fixed now and they’ll be facing a quarterback (Osweiler) that doesn’t have much confidence. This is a game I would normally pass on if it was part of the Sunday schedule, but since it’s a prime time game, I’ll make a pick. Houston by double-digits.
Pick: Texans -7.5
Betting Trends:
- Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 8.
- Dolphins are 4-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Dolphins are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Dolphins are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Dolphins are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- Dolphins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Dolphins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Dolphins are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games on fieldturf.
- Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Texans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8.
- Texans are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.
- Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Texans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
- Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Texans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
- Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
- Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Texans are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 road games.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Dolphins last 10 Thursday games.
- Under is 13-3 in Dolphins last 16 games in Week 8.
- Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games in October.
- Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 vs. AFC.
- Over is 7-3 in Dolphins last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 28-12 in Dolphins last 40 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 6-1 in Texans last 7 vs. AFC.
- Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 7-2 in Texans last 9 games overall.
- Under is 7-2 in Texans last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 7-2 in Texans last 9 games in Week 8.
- Over is 14-5 in Texans last 19 games in October.
