Cubs vs White Sox Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [7/26/17]

Chicago Cubs (52-47) at Chicago White Sox (39-58)
When: Wednesday, July 26th 2017
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Cubs -200/9.5

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The Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox continue their crosstown rivalry on Wednesday night at Guaranteed Rate Field after splitting the first two games at Wrigley Field. The Cubs hope to continue their second-half surge and keep pace in the tightening National League Central race, while the last-place White Sox just want to beat the Cubs in the Crosstown Cup. The Cubs evened the series with a 7-2 victory Tuesday, improving to 9-2 since the All-Star break and remain a half-game behind the stumbling Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Catcher Willson Contreras continued his hot second half hitting with a home run and four RBIs and is hitting .341 with five home runs and 15 RBIs since the All-Star break. Outfielder Jon Jay is also hot lately, reaching base in seven straight plate appearances. The White Sox have lost 13 of their last 15 games, including nine of 10 since the break and haven’t won at home since July 2nd. Second baseman Yoan Moncada is 2-for-20 with six strikeouts in six games since being called up July 19th. It’s been a rough year for the south siders as they rank 22nd in runs scored (4.39), while their pitching staff has the third least quality starts (31) in all of baseball. They have also committed 73 errors in the field which ranks them 30th out of 32. Avisail Garcia (.303) is the only regular batting over .300 and he’s gone 0-for-9 so far in this home-and-home series.

Pitchers: Cubs – Jake Arrieta (9-7, 4.11 ERA) | White Sox – James Shields (2-2, 5.79)

Jake Arrieta seems to be settling into a groove after a rough start to the season. He’s allowed four runs (three earned) over 12.2 innings in his two starts since the All-Star Break. Arrieta has recorded three quality starts in his last four outings and was one out away in the other. He is 3-1 with a 4.14 ERA in seven meetings with the White Sox.

James Shields is one of the reasons the White Sox have only 31 quality starts this year. He only has two of them in nine starts this season and has made it through six innings just three times. Shields was hit hard for six runs and 10 hits in 4.1 innings Friday at Kansas City, but escaped with a no-decision. Shields is 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA in four starts against the Cubs, including a win last season in which he threw 7.2 scoreless innings.

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Before the All-Star Break I would have put money on the over in this pitching matchup, but Arrieta has been solid recently and should be able to limit the light-hitting Sox, while the Cubs should pummel Shields. I’ll take the runline in this one.

Pick: Cubs -1.5 -122

W/L TRENDS

Chi. Cubs
  • Cubs are 7-0 in their last 7 road games.
  • Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cubs are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cubs are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games.
  • Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 overall.
  • Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 games on grass.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague road games.
  • Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Cubs are 17-5 in their last 22 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win.
  • Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 40-18 in their last 59 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Cubs are 6-14 in their last 20 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 Wednesday games.
  • Cubs are 5-1 in Arrieta’s last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
  • Cubs are 5-1 in Arrieta’s last 6 interleague starts.
  • Cubs are 20-7 in Arrieta’s last 27 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cubs are 8-3 in Arrieta’s last 11 Wednesday starts.
  • Cubs are 37-15 in Arrieta’s last 52 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Cubs are 24-10 in Arrieta’s last 34 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Cubs are 39-17 in Arrieta’s last 56 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Cubs are 36-16 in Arrieta’s last 52 road starts.
  • Cubs are 20-9 in Arrieta’s last 29 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cubs are 22-10 in Arrieta’s last 32 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Cubs are 51-25 in Arrieta’s last 76 starts.
  • Cubs are 51-25 in Arrieta’s last 76 starts on grass.
  • Cubs are 4-9 in Arrieta’s last 13 starts during game 3 of a series.
  • Cubs are 2-5 in Arrieta’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Cubs are 1-5 in Arrieta’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Chi. White Sox
  • White Sox are 21-43 in their last 64 games on grass.
  • White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • White Sox are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • White Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • White Sox are 7-19 in their last 26 during game 3 of a series.
  • White Sox are 7-19 in their last 26 Wednesday games.
  • White Sox are 8-22 in their last 30 overall.
  • White Sox are 8-23 in their last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague games.
  • White Sox are 2-9 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • White Sox are 3-14 in their last 17 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • White Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • White Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • White Sox are 2-14 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • White Sox are 1-8 in their last 9 games following a loss.
  • White Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 home games.
  • White Sox are 4-0 in Shields’ last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • White Sox are 4-1 in Shields’ last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • White Sox are 4-9 in Shields’ last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • White Sox are 4-9 in Shields’ last 13 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • White Sox are 3-8 in Shields’ last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • White Sox are 1-4 in Shields’ last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
  • White Sox are 1-4 in Shields’ last 5 starts on grass.
  • White Sox are 1-4 in Shields’ last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • White Sox are 1-5 in Shields’ last 6 starts.

OU TRENDS

Chi. Cubs
  • Under is 2-0-2 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 2-0-2 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
  • Under is 2-0-2 in Cubs last 4 overall.
  • Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 Wednesday games.
  • Under is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 10-3-2 in Cubs last 15 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 12-4 in Cubs last 16 road games.
  • Over is 6-2-1 in Cubs last 9 interleague games.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 9-3-3 in Cubs last 15 vs. American League Central.
  • Over is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 interleague road games.
  • Under is 19-7 in Cubs last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 8-3 in Cubs last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 13-5-1 in Cubs last 19 games following a win.
  • Over is 15-6 in Cubs last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 17-7-1 in Cubs last 25 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 7-3-1 in Cubs last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Arrieta’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 interleague starts.
  • Under is 6-2 in Arrieta’s last 8 road starts.
  • Under is 5-2 in Arrieta’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Over is 10-4-1 in Arrieta’s last 15 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 16-7-1 in Arrieta’s last 24 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Chi. White Sox
  • Under is 3-0-1 in White Sox last 4 on grass.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in White Sox last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in White Sox last 4 overall.
  • Under is 4-0-3 in White Sox last 7 vs. National League Central.
  • Over is 3-0-1 in White Sox last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 Wednesday games.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in White Sox last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in White Sox last 6 interleague games.
  • Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 9-3-1 in White Sox last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in White Sox last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in White Sox last 5 interleague home games.
  • Over is 5-2 in White Sox last 7 during game 3 of a series.
  • Under is 7-3 in White Sox last 10 games following a loss.
  • Over is 7-3-2 in White Sox last 12 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 4-1 in Shields’ last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Under is 5-2 in Shields’ last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 10-4 in Shields’ last 14 home starts.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Under is 4-0-3 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Over is 5-2-2 in the last 9 meetings in Chicago.

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