Chicago Cubs (1-6) at Milwaukee (7-1)
When: Saturday, April 6th, 2019
Where: Miller Park,
Milwaukee, WI
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -110/8.5
The Major League Baseball season is only a week old, but the Chicago Cubs are already 5.5 games out of first place in the National League Central, thanks mostly to their horrific pitching through seven games. The Cubs will try and bounce back after getting hammered by the Milwaukee Brewers 13-10 on Friday in the second of a three-game weekend set. Chicago pitchers have issued an MLB-most 46 walks this season and their bullpen has allowed 28 earned runs in 26.1 innings. The Brewers jumped on Cubs’ starter Jose Quintana early and often in the series opener, but the Chicago offense came to life late in the 23-run slugfest at Miller Park. Milwaukee has won six straight contests and have not allowed more than four runs in the streak until last night. The Brewers blasted five home runs in Friday’s contest including Orlando Arcia, who started the season 0-for-16 but has homered in consecutive games. The series is starting to turn one-sided as the Brewers have taken nine of the last 12 meetings including last season’s Wild Card game at Wrigley Field.
Pitchers: Cubs – Cole Hamels (0-0, 9.00 ERA) | Brewers – Corbin Burnes (0-0, 7.20)
One of Chicago’s poor pitching performances came from Cole Hamels in his season debut March 31st in Texas when he surrendered five runs over five innings of a no-decision. The veteran lefty surrendered a grand slam to Delino DeShields in the 11-10 Cubs loss. Hamels is 7-3 with a 3.60 ERA in 15 starts in his career against the Brewers.
Corbin Burnes made his first career start last Sunday after 30 relief appearances in his 2018 rookie season and it probably could have gone better. He surrendered three homers and four runs over five innings, but did leave with 12 strikeouts in Milwaukee’s 5-4 over St. Louis. Burnes posted a 7-0 record and a 2.61 ERA out of the bullpen last year and three of those appearances were against the Cubs (two runs in 4.1 innings).
There’s a lot of pressure on Hamels here to eat some innings and give this beleaguered bullpen a break. Hamels is not the same pitcher he once was and tends to surrender too many homers – not good when facing this Brewers lineup. I can see another high-scoring game like last night’s, but the Brewers offense is just a little better than the Cubs’ right now.
Check out Bobby Babowski’s MLB Free Picks for Saturday. He’s off to a sizzling 17-7 start including 2-1 on Friday.
Pick: Brewers -115
BETTING TRENDS:
Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Cubs are 0-6 in their last 6 road games.
Cubs are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a loss.
Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cubs are 0-6 in their last 6 overall.
Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cubs are 0-6 in their last 6 games on grass.
Cubs are 0-4 in Hamels’ last 4 road starts.
Cubs are 0-4 in Hamels’ last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cubs are 0-4 in Hamels’ last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 0-5 in Hamels’ last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cubs are 0-4 in Hamels’ last 4 starts.
Cubs are 0-4 in Hamels’ last 4 starts on grass.
Cubs are 0-4 in Hamels’ last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Brewers are 22-7 in their last 29 vs. National League Central.
Brewers are 44-14 in their last 58 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 14-5 in their last 19 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Brewers are 39-14 in their last 53 overall.
Brewers are 39-14 in their last 53 games on grass.
Brewers are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Brewers are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Brewers are 21-8 in their last 29 games following a win.
Brewers are 47-18 in their last 65 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 35-16 in their last 51 home games.
Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 Saturday games.
Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 11-1 in Cubs last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games following a loss.
Over is 16-5 in Cubs last 21 road games.
Under is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 19-7 in Cubs last 26 vs. National League Central.
Over is 18-8 in Cubs last 26 Saturday games.
Under is 6-0 in Hamels’ last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 4-1 in Hamels’ last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 4-1 in Hamels’ last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 9-3 in Hamels’ last 12 starts on grass.
Under is 9-3 in Hamels’ last 12 starts overall.
Under is 6-2 in Hamels’ last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Hamels’ last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-0-1 in Brewers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 Saturday games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 overall.
Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 vs. National League Central.
Over is 7-2-1 in Brewers last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 10-3-1 in Brewers last 14 games following a win.
Over is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 home games.
Over is 15-6 in Brewers last 21 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Brewers last 10 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 24-7 in the last 31 meetings.
Under is 26-10-2 in the last 38 meetings in Milwaukee.
Cubs are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
Cubs are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee.
